{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68d30ffe-19c0-4b57-912b-935c62e9d3f9", "symbol": "PYPL", "name": "PayPal Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 95.757, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.907, "architecture_energy": 96.056, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.442, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.95, "rotation_up": 89.29, "upward_expansion": 100.0, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 8.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.373666, 45.584727, 42.601275, 41.499202 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 51.369999, "trend_reference": 40.749879, "distance_from_trend": 0.260617, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 57.275851, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.103112, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.746902, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.520598, "excess_performance": 0.346351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.260617, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072476, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.103112, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237351, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127469, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.25621, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.520598, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.290147, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5816, "relative_activity": 1.129946, "balance": 2.290147, "dry_up": 1.690644, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043423, "annualized_volatility": 0.401284, "from_high_reference": -0.263163, "from_low_reference": 0.576873 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.749879, "fair_value_reference": 57.275851, "structural_low": 32.577133, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.01269, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.019276, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.153554, "worst_return": -0.147831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.115454, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.16265, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.352293, "worst_return": -0.256971, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.144047, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.288812, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.131873, "worst_return": -0.343835, "sufficient": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.075001, "volume": 14878, "typical_volume": 5208.1, "trend": 40.713251, "fair_value": 57.469826, "relative_strength": -15.93102, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 61.533698, "energy": 53.798548, "activity_lines": [ 42.587, 40.237188, 39.746324, 39.6965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.334999, "volume": 7343, "typical_volume": 5182.8, "trend": 40.691778, "fair_value": 57.35854, "relative_strength": -15.45364, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 65.611549, "energy": 86.535738, "activity_lines": [ 45.419333, 42.097322, 40.67868, 40.252742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.325001, "volume": 6771, "typical_volume": 5237.45, "trend": 40.683092, "fair_value": 57.3065, "relative_strength": -14.524041, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.218322, "energy": 94.475569, "activity_lines": [ 47.407667, 43.757976, 41.566728, 40.809724 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.369999, "volume": 5816, "typical_volume": 5147.15, "trend": 40.749879, "fair_value": 57.275851, "relative_strength": -12.746902, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.907326, "energy": 96.05615, "activity_lines": [ 49.373666, 45.584727, 42.601275, 41.499202 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }