{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68d5bbef-4a18-466d-a21f-39a21325b3aa", "symbol": "AERW-B", "name": "Aerowash AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.834, "architecture_energy": 57.886, "architecture_maturity": 28.05, "architecture_confidence": 67.696, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.79, "rotation_up": 21.6, "upward_expansion": 20.47, "deceleration": 46.08, "rotation_down": 68.14, "downward_expansion": 64.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.992333, 2.090364, 2.430048, 2.494978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.975, "trend_reference": 2.470667, "distance_from_trend": -0.200621, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.939689, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.600177, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.294176, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.022277, "excess_performance": -0.083772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200621, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02031, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.600177, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248884, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.282942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.547294, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.022277, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.239848, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 365471, "relative_activity": 1.08342, "balance": 0.239848, "dry_up": 0.548058, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170399, "annualized_volatility": 0.586721, "from_high_reference": -0.46477, "from_low_reference": 0.200608 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.470667, "fair_value_reference": 4.939689, "structural_low": 1.645, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.059512, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.002062, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.06383, "worst_return": -0.150776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.014634, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.126667, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175978, "worst_return": -0.004435, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.069832, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.102433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302439, "worst_return": -0.186253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.35002, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.283998, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.180488, "worst_return": -0.519553, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.22973, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06982, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09611, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050279, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098765, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.308483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.324074, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.290323, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.29717, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061433, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09697, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116541, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081395, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.6, "volume": 9220, "typical_volume": 31081.5, "trend": 7.31, "fair_value": 10.974211, "relative_strength": -41.769706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.326744, "energy": 60.46641, "activity_lines": [ 2.204, 2.436727, 2.69631, 2.623925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.1, "volume": 125338, "typical_volume": 568904.65, "trend": 2.512167, "fair_value": 5.008696, "relative_strength": -22.572136, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.741053, "energy": 59.199631, "activity_lines": [ 2.147333, 2.333636, 2.640238, 2.596667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.01, "volume": 150684, "typical_volume": 572825.9, "trend": 2.498167, "fair_value": 4.985555, "relative_strength": -26.511249, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.462684, "energy": 59.705141, "activity_lines": [ 2.085333, 2.238545, 2.574405, 2.564269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.93, "volume": 98014, "typical_volume": 464348.45, "trend": 2.480833, "fair_value": 4.963439, "relative_strength": -29.293841, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.127462, "energy": 63.858494, "activity_lines": [ 2.017333, 2.15, 2.5, 2.527613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.975, "volume": 365471, "typical_volume": 337330.75, "trend": 2.470667, "fair_value": 4.939689, "relative_strength": -28.294176, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.833863, "energy": 57.886314, "activity_lines": [ 1.992333, 2.090364, 2.430048, 2.494978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }