{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68d6b15a-1089-48b0-9e44-04c1216ab531", "symbol": "CCB", "name": "Coastal Financial Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -86.661, "architecture_energy": 92.315, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.198, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.88, "rotation_up": 13.43, "upward_expansion": 25.76, "deceleration": 31.34, "rotation_down": 79.51, "downward_expansion": 92.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.244, 64.663818, 69.049095, 71.870774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.34, "trend_reference": 77.447667, "distance_from_trend": -0.414572, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 70.984006, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.361265, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.175114, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.484421, "excess_performance": -0.671875, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.414572, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156086, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.361265, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.423704, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.571751, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191017, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.484421, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.885802, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2331420, "relative_activity": 2.608675, "balance": 0.885802, "dry_up": 2.106717, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.169005, "annualized_volatility": 0.862357, "from_high_reference": -0.622324, "from_low_reference": 0.238459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.447667, "fair_value_reference": 70.984006, "structural_low": 36.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.060221, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.003955, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.132621, "worst_return": -0.4222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.068773, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.001829, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.132007, "worst_return": -0.167244, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.239251, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.117676, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.248342, "worst_return": 0.224155, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-06-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.940731, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080872, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.161669, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009842, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047643, "active": false }, { "regime": 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17.025111, "activity_lines": [ 76.415333, 75.409818, 75.028952, 76.757806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.99, "volume": 3969584, "typical_volume": 817217.15, "trend": 79.834333, "fair_value": 70.98625, "relative_strength": -59.894147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.262157, "energy": 74.099314, "activity_lines": [ 64.396, 69.380727, 71.746333, 74.096215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.34, "volume": 2331420, "typical_volume": 893718.15, "trend": 77.447667, "fair_value": 70.984006, "relative_strength": -57.175114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.661375, "energy": 92.31471, "activity_lines": [ 56.244, 64.663818, 69.049095, 71.870774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }