{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68d790a2-5c82-4408-8d67-c5381d145c5d", "symbol": "LUCE", "name": "Luceco plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.352, "architecture_energy": 18.459, "architecture_maturity": 65.84, "architecture_confidence": 76.418, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.37, "rotation_up": 17.05, "upward_expansion": 48.59, "deceleration": 85.16, "rotation_down": 41.32, "downward_expansion": 28.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 235.2, 249.363636, 250.080404, 235.386987 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 226.0, "trend_reference": 213.105858, "distance_from_trend": 0.060506, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 153.148222, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.475695, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.333645, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.385102, "excess_performance": 0.333867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060506, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.245968, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.475695, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208364, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.183336, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.385102, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.881447, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1850751, "relative_activity": 0.787023, "balance": 0.881447, "dry_up": 0.870765, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110279, "annualized_volatility": 0.459456, "from_high_reference": -0.226027, "from_low_reference": 1.025809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 213.105858, "fair_value_reference": 153.148222, "structural_low": 155.836415, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010782, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.015158, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.319211, "worst_return": -0.126963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011096, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.04473, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.511942, "worst_return": -0.075635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.087028, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.134366, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.294289, "worst_return": -0.315088, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006402, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153158, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113707, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057343, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": 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268.109091, 242.835074, 222.155702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 267.0, "volume": 1300209, "typical_volume": 2315419.7, "trend": 199.008725, "fair_value": 150.190938, "relative_strength": 50.132874, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.48158, "energy": 57.068396, "activity_lines": [ 270.533333, 269.454545, 247.262977, 226.836919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 261.0, "volume": 981044, "typical_volume": 2261699.5, "trend": 203.309673, "fair_value": 151.046959, "relative_strength": 43.888579, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.915468, "energy": 46.234239, "activity_lines": [ 266.6, 268.818182, 250.714503, 230.836356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 251.0, "volume": 1350647, "typical_volume": 2233131.4, "trend": 207.250626, "fair_value": 151.849123, "relative_strength": 35.363133, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.710764, "energy": 38.514024, "activity_lines": [ 261.266667, 265.963636, 252.818227, 233.913152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 214.0, "volume": 4008260, "typical_volume": 2334352.2, "trend": 209.904925, "fair_value": 152.467895, "relative_strength": 13.235392, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.785761, "energy": 18.136737, "activity_lines": [ 244.666667, 256.072727, 250.99321, 234.348595 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 226.0, "volume": 1850751, "typical_volume": 2351582.95, "trend": 213.105858, "fair_value": 153.148222, "relative_strength": 18.333645, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.352482, "energy": 18.459215, "activity_lines": [ 235.2, 249.363636, 250.080404, 235.386987 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }