{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68da1566-7797-4b4f-8b0f-70266c8f35c5", "symbol": "SBUY", "name": "Invesco Global Buyback Achievers UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 93.625, "architecture_energy": 96.735, "architecture_maturity": 61.631, "architecture_confidence": 69.294, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.35, "rotation_up": 89.49, "upward_expansion": 99.77, "deceleration": 39.08, "rotation_down": 8.52, "downward_expansion": 21.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 5640.933333, 5572.590522, 5484.132248, 5423.69342 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 5730.5, "trend_reference": 5353.661855, "distance_from_trend": 0.070389, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4476.689921, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280075, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.494043, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080328, "excess_performance": 0.029093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070389, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02965, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280075, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048022, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01494, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007204, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080328, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4761, "relative_activity": 2.694702, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 1.994849, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011885, "annualized_volatility": 0.080014, "from_high_reference": -0.128345, "from_low_reference": 0.224603 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5353.661855, "fair_value_reference": 4476.689921, "structural_low": 5016.300781, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.005107, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.002705, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.344099, "worst_return": -0.255323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.01547, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.005097, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.076629, "worst_return": -0.09039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01935, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.037124, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.1211, "worst_return": -0.085459, "sufficient": true }, { 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87.913394, "energy": 94.276803, "activity_lines": [ 5582.466667, 5527.301489, 5451.03037, 5398.27248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5730.5, "volume": 4761, "typical_volume": 1766.8, "trend": 5353.661855, "fair_value": 4476.689921, "relative_strength": 1.494043, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.624828, "energy": 96.735163, "activity_lines": [ 5640.933333, 5572.590522, 5484.132248, 5423.69342 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }