{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68dba2cf-363b-41e9-9806-cc280941c57f", "symbol": "MA", "name": "Mastercard Incorporated", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 87.311, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.273, "architecture_energy": 84.996, "architecture_maturity": 11.984, "architecture_confidence": 64.525, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.93, "rotation_up": 83.23, "upward_expansion": 98.4, "deceleration": 39.02, "rotation_down": 8.11, "downward_expansion": 20.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 9640.730729, 9372.068447, 9069.894682, 9002.257332 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 9665.0, "trend_reference": 8992.381161, "distance_from_trend": 0.074799, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9230.137659, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047113, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.992205, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.025558, "excess_performance": 0.080225, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074799, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036902, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047113, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100691, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019922, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.217156, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025558, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.43566, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1035, "relative_activity": 0.410364, "balance": 0.43566, "dry_up": 0.883373, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034447, "annualized_volatility": 0.213686, "from_high_reference": -0.133431, "from_low_reference": 0.155256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8992.381161, "fair_value_reference": 9230.137659, "structural_low": 8366.111002, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024169, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.00995, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.037863, "worst_return": -0.051253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.067613, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.120708, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.016461, "worst_return": -0.091802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.050252, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.008324, "worst_return": -0.152352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 61.918436, "energy": 81.682354, "activity_lines": [ 9576.191678, 9253.706768, 8995.030644, 8960.574984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9665.0, "volume": 1035, "typical_volume": 2522.15, "trend": 8992.381161, "fair_value": 9230.137659, "relative_strength": -1.992205, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.27345, "energy": 84.996007, "activity_lines": [ 9640.730729, 9372.068447, 9069.894682, 9002.257332 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }