{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68dd1104-0ea1-41e7-a4a2-895e10324cfc", "symbol": "TLV", "name": "Invesco S&P/TSX Composite Low Volatility Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.344, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.891, "architecture_energy": 67.241, "architecture_maturity": 85.392, "architecture_confidence": 79.425, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.91, "rotation_up": 59.68, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.83, "rotation_down": 28.73, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.011258, 44.873102, 43.967269, 43.123632 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 44.389999, "trend_reference": 42.008087, "distance_from_trend": 0.056701, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.920826, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348387, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.988501, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.118981, "excess_performance": -0.00144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056701, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054629, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.348387, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017233, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003381, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118981, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.111111, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6800, "relative_activity": 2.111801, "balance": 1.111111, "dry_up": 0.916149, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013054, "annualized_volatility": 0.083772, "from_high_reference": -0.031384, "from_low_reference": 0.258684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.008087, "fair_value_reference": 32.920826, "structural_low": 39.526093, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.016248, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.000657, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.045357, "worst_return": -0.031458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.03387, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.017302, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.125836, "worst_return": -0.029254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.063055, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.009161, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.145353, "worst_return": -0.064034, "sufficient": true }, { 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43.278356, 42.470383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.260052, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 2970.0, "trend": 41.610483, "fair_value": 32.66909, "relative_strength": 3.731345, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.538341, "energy": 88.357532, "activity_lines": [ 45.183685, 44.667605, 43.557589, 42.720482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.299999, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 3010.0, "trend": 41.8307, "fair_value": 32.798799, "relative_strength": 4.267999, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.295504, "energy": 69.67911, "activity_lines": [ 45.270042, 44.874446, 43.81781, 42.958515 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.389999, "volume": 6800, "typical_volume": 3220.0, "trend": 42.008087, "fair_value": 32.920826, "relative_strength": -0.988501, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.891427, "energy": 67.24103, "activity_lines": [ 45.011258, 44.873102, 43.967269, 43.123632 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }