{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68e36b18-8aff-4b50-8857-dcb8f5664fe0", "symbol": "1F2", "name": "Union Gas Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.817, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.282, "architecture_energy": 13.436, "architecture_maturity": 34.766, "architecture_confidence": 49.787, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.54, "rotation_up": 42.26, "upward_expansion": 26.2, "deceleration": 49.71, "rotation_down": 19.32, "downward_expansion": 26.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.416667, 0.409448, 0.420976, 0.422274 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.45, "trend_reference": 0.415609, "distance_from_trend": 0.08275, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.353742, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.735068, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.2, "excess_performance": 0.045165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08275, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031832, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272114, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093297, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047351, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.2, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.55669, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2943300, "relative_activity": 1.82131, "balance": 1.55669, "dry_up": 0.593041, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054303, "annualized_volatility": 0.523886, "from_high_reference": -0.142857, "from_low_reference": 0.2834 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.415609, "fair_value_reference": 0.353742, "structural_low": 0.355, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.041884, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.039204, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.027778, "worst_return": -0.091225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031387, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.047299, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.184231, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.009797, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.009113, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.332186, "worst_return": -0.210717, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-03", "close": 0.395, "volume": 107800, "typical_volume": 2495870.0, "trend": 0.408442, "fair_value": 0.353342, "relative_strength": -10.612208, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.233114, "energy": 59.006909, "activity_lines": [ 0.40131, 0.418484, 0.430815, 0.422438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.4, "volume": 259600, "typical_volume": 2502600.0, "trend": 0.409442, "fair_value": 0.353236, "relative_strength": -13.097659, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.643339, "energy": 58.09934, "activity_lines": [ 0.398333, 0.412746, 0.428181, 0.421894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.4, "volume": 378700, "typical_volume": 2502425.0, "trend": 0.410275, "fair_value": 0.353304, "relative_strength": -13.581644, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.299957, "energy": 55.687504, "activity_lines": [ 0.397667, 0.407994, 0.425427, 0.421284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4, "volume": 235200, "typical_volume": 2489865.0, "trend": 0.411609, "fair_value": 0.353256, "relative_strength": -14.387622, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.836262, "energy": 35.258189, "activity_lines": [ 0.398333, 0.404581, 0.422507, 0.420621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4, "volume": 276300, "typical_volume": 2480155.0, "trend": 0.412775, "fair_value": 0.353295, "relative_strength": -14.572736, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.178143, "energy": 28.853554, "activity_lines": [ 0.399667, 0.401977, 0.41942, 0.419873 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.45, "volume": 2943300, "typical_volume": 1616035.0, "trend": 0.415609, "fair_value": 0.353742, "relative_strength": -4.735068, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.281605, "energy": 13.435559, "activity_lines": [ 0.416667, 0.409448, 0.420976, 0.422274 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }