{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68e3f70b-7bef-4373-88e8-c6444ea07349", "symbol": "WSU", "name": "WashTec AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.972, "architecture_energy": 45.716, "architecture_maturity": 70.225, "architecture_confidence": 85.409, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.37, "rotation_up": 28.76, "upward_expansion": 7.69, "deceleration": 60.42, "rotation_down": 43.25, "downward_expansion": 78.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.293333, 38.321818, 38.963043, 40.169381 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 38.5, "trend_reference": 41.926405, "distance_from_trend": -0.081724, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.568277, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.082425, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.294164, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.164683, "excess_performance": -0.338929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081724, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036514, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.082425, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053173, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164683, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.873134, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137, "relative_activity": 3.024283, "balance": 0.873134, "dry_up": 2.047461, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034565, "annualized_volatility": 0.169221, "from_high_reference": -0.206772, "from_low_reference": 0.127564 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.926405, "fair_value_reference": 35.568277, "structural_low": 37.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.013214, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.021453, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.141744, "worst_return": -0.149874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.025306, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045744, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.221354, "worst_return": -0.19186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004681, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.042013, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.174479, "worst_return": -0.143023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.71495, "energy": 82.446216, "activity_lines": [ 38.593333, 39.040669, 40.603448, 41.884507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 39.099998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.65, "trend": 43.010419, "fair_value": 35.283656, "relative_strength": -23.354164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.366932, "energy": 68.886057, "activity_lines": [ 38.719999, 38.944573, 40.304535, 41.62083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.5, "volume": 131, "typical_volume": 37.2, "trend": 42.808732, "fair_value": 35.335493, "relative_strength": -25.099899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.315157, "energy": 64.164804, "activity_lines": [ 38.339999, 38.614545, 39.891903, 41.265319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.900002, "volume": 190, "typical_volume": 46.7, "trend": 42.592161, "fair_value": 35.391243, "relative_strength": -22.399566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.837089, "energy": 59.563018, "activity_lines": [ 38.16, 38.438182, 39.564543, 40.948627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.799999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 36.25, "trend": 42.381662, "fair_value": 35.444194, "relative_strength": -23.243333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.137146, "energy": 58.291405, "activity_lines": [ 37.973333, 38.274545, 39.272035, 40.639455 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.799999, "volume": 44, "typical_volume": 38.45, "trend": 42.204497, "fair_value": 35.507602, "relative_strength": -20.781146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.67639, "energy": 52.251323, "activity_lines": [ 38.2, 38.316363, 39.115139, 40.40838 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.5, "volume": 137, "typical_volume": 45.3, "trend": 41.926405, "fair_value": 35.568277, "relative_strength": -23.294164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.971656, "energy": 45.715677, "activity_lines": [ 38.293333, 38.321818, 38.963043, 40.169381 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }