{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68ee7cf5-eb29-4459-ae17-37917b605849", "symbol": "301151", "name": "Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.64, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.284, "architecture_energy": 28.537, "architecture_maturity": 25.248, "architecture_confidence": 60.239, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.56, "rotation_up": 10.43, "upward_expansion": 10.21, "deceleration": 62.61, "rotation_down": 56.4, "downward_expansion": 64.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.338667, 18.166727, 18.124844, 18.251708 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.4, "trend_reference": 18.540431, "distance_from_trend": -0.06151, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.011787, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02282, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.300156, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.105215, "excess_performance": -0.112615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06151, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012567, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02282, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012632, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133002, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124857, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105215, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.039932, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25783187, "relative_activity": 1.631661, "balance": 1.039932, "dry_up": 1.899514, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152262, "annualized_volatility": 0.636011, "from_high_reference": -0.378843, "from_low_reference": 0.185286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.540431, "fair_value_reference": 17.011787, "structural_low": 14.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.026458, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.028072, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.241971, "worst_return": -0.157489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057193, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.036983, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.382625, "worst_return": -0.21097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.293418, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.128577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.461702, "worst_return": 0.125134, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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17.015189, "relative_strength": -13.939578, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.864997, "energy": 12.320408, "activity_lines": [ 18.917333, 18.955413, 18.477604, 18.546559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.3, "volume": 21893435, "typical_volume": 14868217.15, "trend": 18.579332, "fair_value": 17.005739, "relative_strength": -20.464659, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.739071, "energy": 23.618734, "activity_lines": [ 17.698667, 18.355455, 18.191282, 18.327794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.4, "volume": 25783187, "typical_volume": 15801802.6, "trend": 18.540431, "fair_value": 17.011787, "relative_strength": -13.300156, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.284405, "energy": 28.537378, "activity_lines": [ 17.338667, 18.166727, 18.124844, 18.251708 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }