{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68f571f6-415f-407d-9303-bab1cc2adc3b", "symbol": "GIGM", "name": "Giga Media Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 62.384, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.722, "architecture_energy": 11.704, "architecture_maturity": 42.204, "architecture_confidence": 61.366, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.47, "rotation_up": 21.86, "upward_expansion": 9.26, "deceleration": 55.01, "rotation_down": 33.32, "downward_expansion": 63.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.427333, 1.420727, 1.424629, 1.441165 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.475, "trend_reference": 1.465557, "distance_from_trend": 0.006444, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.451005, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.016537, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.506977, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042208, "excess_performance": -0.229661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006444, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025239, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.016537, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025072, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15507, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062673, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042208, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.625888, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31772, "relative_activity": 1.111447, "balance": 1.625888, "dry_up": 1.239814, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081987, "annualized_volatility": 0.236464, "from_high_reference": -0.219577, "from_low_reference": 0.143411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.465557, "fair_value_reference": 1.451005, "structural_low": 1.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.007937, "positive_rate": 0.432432, "directional_follow_through": 0.540541, "median_excess_return": -0.0131, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.189532, "worst_return": -0.156627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.055118, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.076014, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.313022, "worst_return": -0.185897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.059613, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.165619, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.158417, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082803, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010309, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088633, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013944, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"down", "direction": -52.929253, "energy": 38.096292, "activity_lines": [ 1.404427, 1.42268, 1.44565, 1.465642 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.42, "volume": 69530, "typical_volume": 27473.2, "trend": 1.4848, "fair_value": 1.452507, "relative_strength": -19.157996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.824068, "energy": 38.521861, "activity_lines": [ 1.40588, 1.41944, 1.440427, 1.461289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.43, "volume": 32342, "typical_volume": 26952.6, "trend": 1.481573, "fair_value": 1.452763, "relative_strength": -18.821098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.562545, "energy": 24.133491, "activity_lines": [ 1.412, 1.419291, 1.436729, 1.457754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.45, "volume": 18551, "typical_volume": 27068.95, "trend": 1.477223, "fair_value": 1.453083, "relative_strength": -18.67329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.579073, "energy": 15.866646, "activity_lines": [ 1.428, 1.423505, 1.435547, 1.455717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.39, "volume": 45460, "typical_volume": 27514.95, "trend": 1.473557, "fair_value": 1.452442, "relative_strength": -18.300819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.134062, "energy": 17.900527, "activity_lines": [ 1.418667, 1.416811, 1.429222, 1.450089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.375, "volume": 42015, "typical_volume": 27163.45, "trend": 1.46939, "fair_value": 1.45155, "relative_strength": -17.496756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.240724, "energy": 23.871746, "activity_lines": [ 1.404333, 1.408298, 1.422326, 1.443731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.42, "volume": 22519, "typical_volume": 27574.0, "trend": 1.46539, "fair_value": 1.450845, "relative_strength": -14.908038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.594021, "energy": 20.951218, "activity_lines": [ 1.406667, 1.409331, 1.420549, 1.440545 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.475, "volume": 31772, "typical_volume": 28586.15, "trend": 1.465557, "fair_value": 1.451005, "relative_strength": -15.506977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.721801, "energy": 11.703532, "activity_lines": [ 1.427333, 1.420727, 1.424629, 1.441165 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }