{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68f85921-a811-4ffa-b718-dfdc9d42c0ba", "symbol": "EEMO", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II S&P EMERGING MKTS MOMENTUM ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.88, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.298, "architecture_energy": 20.029, "architecture_maturity": 54.643, "architecture_confidence": 87.56, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.0, "rotation_up": 15.33, "upward_expansion": 41.42, "deceleration": 87.24, "rotation_down": 44.63, "downward_expansion": 35.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.599107, 21.51919, 21.786663, 21.092551 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.888, "trend_reference": 20.210332, "distance_from_trend": 0.033531, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.55434, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.13237, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125024, "excess_performance": -0.000601, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033531, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079843, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.261784, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188299, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021324, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125024, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.661323, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105418, "relative_activity": 1.341955, "balance": 0.661323, "dry_up": 1.116296, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106327, "annualized_volatility": 0.438463, "from_high_reference": -0.201834, "from_low_reference": 0.286246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.210332, "fair_value_reference": 16.55434, "structural_low": 16.2395, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.0151, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02804, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.008935, "worst_return": -0.021264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.016227, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060643, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081076, "worst_return": -0.048621, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.049206, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.112098, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173654, "worst_return": -0.075242, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.24054, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.111487, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.24054, "worst_return": 0.24054, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.148176, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004566, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014723, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017764, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030872, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.019746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087751, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.063894, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034054, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071001, "active": false }, { 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23.947361, 23.217649, 21.537059, 20.606936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.34, "volume": 195919, "typical_volume": 58528.65, "trend": 19.6879, "fair_value": 16.317511, "relative_strength": 8.978902, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.803365, "energy": 50.825564, "activity_lines": [ 23.507491, 23.182509, 21.732067, 20.788244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.65, "volume": 91817, "typical_volume": 62151.9, "trend": 19.85908, "fair_value": 16.377249, "relative_strength": 8.760318, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.145823, "energy": 44.529422, "activity_lines": [ 23.276265, 23.162553, 21.939002, 20.979347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.5033, "volume": 102564, "typical_volume": 66814.9, "trend": 19.958021, "fair_value": 16.422419, "relative_strength": -0.024665, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.252023, "energy": 18.625694, "activity_lines": [ 22.246594, 22.712084, 21.924353, 21.02091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.51, "volume": 26480, "typical_volume": 67976.35, "trend": 20.051778, "fair_value": 16.465673, "relative_strength": 0.55162, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.695487, "energy": 21.131616, "activity_lines": [ 21.41392, 22.30623, 21.901093, 21.056521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.84, "volume": 116303, "typical_volume": 73712.8, "trend": 20.117767, "fair_value": 16.506227, "relative_strength": -3.765221, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.999068, "energy": 16.923069, "activity_lines": [ 20.69266, 21.796669, 21.799677, 21.042858 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.888, "volume": 105418, "typical_volume": 78555.55, "trend": 20.210332, "fair_value": 16.55434, "relative_strength": -2.13237, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.29843, "energy": 20.02868, "activity_lines": [ 20.599107, 21.51919, 21.786663, 21.092551 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }