{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "68fa682b-dbd1-4760-b63d-794fea105bf3",
    "symbol": "MF",
    "name": "Wendel",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 92.897,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 55.787,
    "architecture_energy": 41.489,
    "architecture_maturity": 17.078,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.653,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 37.24,
        "rotation_up": 52.48,
        "upward_expansion": 69.39,
        "deceleration": 50.38,
        "rotation_down": 19.11,
        "downward_expansion": 17.39
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        83.890001,
        83.116364,
        83.129268,
        82.356821
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 86.800003,
    "trend_reference": 81.619029,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.063478,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 78.15279,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.110645,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.99575,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.023853,
    "excess_performance": -0.029458,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063478,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027221,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.110645,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.034207,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019958,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022049,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.023853,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.145775,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 89978,
      "relative_activity": 0.437064,
      "balance": 2.145775,
      "dry_up": 0.680612,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.035263,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.256523,
      "from_high_reference": -0.013571,
      "from_low_reference": 0.249568
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 81.619029,
      "fair_value_reference": 78.15279,
      "structural_low": 69.464014,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.017224,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": 0.005778,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.106655,
        "worst_return": -0.140925,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.042424,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.04854,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.078396,
        "worst_return": -0.130952,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.035551,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.141236,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.070648,
        "worst_return": -0.203492,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.105555,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.127874,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.003992,
        "worst_return": -0.215102,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.010899,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.034877,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.077165,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.052938,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.025824,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.045596,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.041327,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-09-05",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.013283,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.097786,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.134146,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.195302,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.028269,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.030346,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.043897,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 338341.05,
        "trend": 78.194192,
        "fair_value": 77.878072,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 331073.4,
        "trend": 78.510166,
        "fair_value": 77.865793,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "energy": 57.100172,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 86.75,
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        "typical_volume": 344463.15,
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        "fair_value": 77.892473,
        "relative_strength": 6.781906,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 337335.5,
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        "relative_strength": 1.544921,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 80.143206,
        "fair_value": 77.898051,
        "relative_strength": 1.486894,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 77.933022,
        "relative_strength": -1.464115,
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        "direction": 34.251424,
        "energy": 17.606943,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 83.150002,
        "volume": 58112,
        "typical_volume": 296404.65,
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        "fair_value": 77.966166,
        "relative_strength": -0.795296,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 79.599998,
        "volume": 217929,
        "typical_volume": 294225.65,
        "trend": 80.896297,
        "fair_value": 77.969149,
        "relative_strength": -2.839531,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 9.118393,
        "energy": 12.869785,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 81.449997,
        "volume": 189423,
        "typical_volume": 285342.3,
        "trend": 81.047801,
        "fair_value": 77.98125,
        "relative_strength": -0.308038,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 18.091989,
        "energy": 18.636982,
        "activity_lines": [
          81.469999,
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          82.254962,
          81.768531
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 81.75,
        "volume": 157062,
        "typical_volume": 272649.6,
        "trend": 81.170901,
        "fair_value": 78.010355,
        "relative_strength": -0.055342,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 8.673091,
        "energy": 13.513078,
        "activity_lines": [
          81.416666,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 84.150002,
        "volume": 124006,
        "typical_volume": 260659.0,
        "trend": 81.3628,
        "fair_value": 78.068554,
        "relative_strength": 1.238162,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.41647,
        "energy": 14.238908,
        "activity_lines": [
          82.296667,
          82.408182,
          82.624841,
          82.006034
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 86.800003,
        "volume": 89978,
        "typical_volume": 205869.35,
        "trend": 81.619029,
        "fair_value": 78.15279,
        "relative_strength": 1.99575,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.786827,
        "energy": 41.489394,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.890001,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}