{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68fc07ee-e8c6-45a8-8db2-c63fd9b68856", "symbol": "2438", "name": "Enlight Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.748, "architecture_energy": 69.456, "architecture_maturity": 19.788, "architecture_confidence": 81.866, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.92, "rotation_up": 10.21, "upward_expansion": 15.37, "deceleration": 38.05, "rotation_down": 73.43, "downward_expansion": 91.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.003333, 18.934545, 20.525714, 21.069785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.450001, "trend_reference": 21.638333, "distance_from_trend": -0.147346, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.577244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.37621, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.887221, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.135831, "excess_performance": -0.577203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147346, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043891, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.37621, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069521, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.428872, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021498, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135831, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.391678, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 733832, "relative_activity": 0.594194, "balance": 1.391678, "dry_up": 0.464898, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129039, "annualized_volatility": 0.571319, "from_high_reference": -0.386023, "from_low_reference": 0.153125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.638333, "fair_value_reference": 29.577244, "structural_low": 16.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.001825, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.03524, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.642202, "worst_return": -0.233154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.026471, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.179729, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 2.593909, "worst_return": -0.20997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012104, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.42132, "worst_return": -0.244713, "sufficient": true 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024336, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.258883, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.9875, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.330658, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": 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29.71218, "relative_strength": -42.940157, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.031171, "energy": 64.637065, "activity_lines": [ 20.303333, 21.516363, 22.02619, 22.103011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.950001, "volume": 680311, "typical_volume": 1316255.65, "trend": 22.0, "fair_value": 29.678526, "relative_strength": -44.973307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.98045, "energy": 74.689484, "activity_lines": [ 19.32, 20.750909, 21.62619, 21.833226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.049999, "volume": 616139, "typical_volume": 1329580.2, "trend": 21.888333, "fair_value": 29.647756, "relative_strength": -42.919442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.273759, "energy": 75.09975, "activity_lines": [ 18.673333, 20.052727, 21.253333, 21.578387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.299999, "volume": 266322, "typical_volume": 1241273.05, "trend": 21.745, "fair_value": 29.602564, "relative_strength": -45.576576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.344222, "energy": 78.363877, "activity_lines": [ 17.993333, 19.29, 20.82119, 21.282365 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 18.450001, "volume": 733832, "typical_volume": 1235003.5, "trend": 21.638333, "fair_value": 29.577244, "relative_strength": -42.887221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.748129, "energy": 69.455847, "activity_lines": [ 18.003333, 18.934545, 20.525714, 21.069785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }