{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6901f76d-5466-4fa1-8378-bf13e5be7b37", "symbol": "FCCD", "name": "Fidelity Canadian High Dividend ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.171, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.904, "architecture_energy": 65.784, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.407, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.32, "rotation_up": 62.11, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 60.8, "rotation_down": 22.55, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.793419, 40.594225, 40.178858, 39.652826 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.759998, "trend_reference": 38.883357, "distance_from_trend": 0.048263, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.014247, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.358022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.25281, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.106952, "excess_performance": -0.013469, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048263, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050936, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.358022, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012992, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012528, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028918, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106952, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.833333, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12100, "relative_activity": 0.666667, "balance": 0.833333, "dry_up": 1.210744, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011522, "annualized_volatility": 0.09278, "from_high_reference": -0.008778, "from_low_reference": 0.297469 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.883357, "fair_value_reference": 30.014247, "structural_low": 36.642939, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.015574, "positive_rate": 0.675, "directional_follow_through": 0.675, "median_excess_return": -0.001029, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.071414, "worst_return": -0.040931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.045767, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.002327, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.108978, "worst_return": -0.08939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0942, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.001974, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.169936, "worst_return": -0.023423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 82.62741, "energy": 69.690757, "activity_lines": [ 40.390415, 40.256366, 39.747283, 39.203595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.971375, "volume": 28700, "typical_volume": 19720.0, "trend": 38.53661, "fair_value": 29.796704, "relative_strength": 2.093839, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.739053, "energy": 70.477943, "activity_lines": [ 40.613744, 40.416125, 39.917656, 39.37319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.830002, "volume": 28400, "typical_volume": 19160.0, "trend": 38.719027, "fair_value": 29.906354, "relative_strength": 2.137058, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.583991, "energy": 67.285125, "activity_lines": [ 40.738123, 40.517522, 40.059417, 39.52115 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.759998, "volume": 12100, "typical_volume": 18150.0, "trend": 38.883357, "fair_value": 30.014247, "relative_strength": -1.25281, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.903994, "energy": 65.784, "activity_lines": [ 40.793419, 40.594225, 40.178858, 39.652826 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }