{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69026c0d-8e3b-4d5e-b93b-64491fdbf6aa", "symbol": "EAOA", "name": "ISHARES ESG AWARE AGGRESSIVE ALLOCATION ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.424, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.141, "architecture_energy": 53.232, "architecture_maturity": 56.868, "architecture_confidence": 67.199, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.01, "rotation_up": 52.61, "upward_expansion": 80.92, "deceleration": 64.94, "rotation_down": 27.32, "downward_expansion": 7.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.118047, 44.965526, 44.588715, 43.93348 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.0061, "trend_reference": 43.215128, "distance_from_trend": 0.064583, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.113675, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273925, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.302115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.084399, "excess_performance": -0.041226, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064583, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03022, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273925, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001203, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023021, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004211, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084399, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.751319, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7924, "relative_activity": 0.816045, "balance": 0.751319, "dry_up": 0.508277, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018512, "annualized_volatility": 0.125255, "from_high_reference": -0.000734, "from_low_reference": 0.199765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.215128, "fair_value_reference": 36.113675, "structural_low": 39.429263, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.009717, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.004449, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.036372, "worst_return": -0.041726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.032291, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.013382, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.06469, "worst_return": -0.100214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.07256, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.035794, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.090305, "worst_return": 0.038436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.268599, "energy": 40.169239, "activity_lines": [ 44.668815, 44.709606, 44.223785, 43.625488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.8205, "volume": 4560, "typical_volume": 9572.95, "trend": 43.083538, "fair_value": 36.003346, "relative_strength": -1.524394, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.378827, "energy": 38.047906, "activity_lines": [ 44.705467, 44.733969, 44.35983, 43.744927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.0061, "volume": 7924, "typical_volume": 9710.25, "trend": 43.215128, "fair_value": 36.113675, "relative_strength": -2.302115, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.140617, "energy": 53.231621, "activity_lines": [ 45.118047, 44.965526, 44.588715, 43.93348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }