{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69030f8d-9148-4f3a-856a-ff5df40f24a0", "symbol": "00646", "name": "Yuanta S&P 500 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.137, "architecture_energy": 79.424, "architecture_maturity": 38.565, "architecture_confidence": 68.259, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.45, "rotation_up": 73.16, "upward_expansion": 90.49, "deceleration": 49.55, "rotation_down": 19.62, "downward_expansion": 14.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.693333, 75.874545, 74.635475, 73.085591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 78.25, "trend_reference": 71.299999, "distance_from_trend": 0.097475, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.290705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.34241, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.973264, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.145681, "excess_performance": -0.233631, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097475, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041586, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.34241, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035183, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159733, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086132, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145681, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.034057, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16848197, "relative_activity": 1.372468, "balance": 10.034057, "dry_up": 1.29841, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017842, "annualized_volatility": 0.10787, "from_high_reference": -0.01012, "from_low_reference": 0.341045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.299999, "fair_value_reference": 58.290705, "structural_low": 63.650002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.018702, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.007395, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.062874, "worst_return": -0.053247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.037545, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.005127, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.12785, "worst_return": -0.049553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.064113, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.010864, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.206434, "worst_return": -0.103252, "sufficient": true 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.304118, "energy": 68.659609, "activity_lines": [ 74.776666, 74.502726, 72.811666, 71.549569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 76.050003, "volume": 17579391, "typical_volume": 12436324.6, "trend": 70.413333, "fair_value": 57.659808, "relative_strength": -17.074795, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.529042, "energy": 83.104867, "activity_lines": [ 75.32, 74.834545, 73.28119, 71.931397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.5, "volume": 7729375, "typical_volume": 11872941.65, "trend": 70.693333, "fair_value": 57.866154, "relative_strength": -18.981874, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.970839, "energy": 82.103878, "activity_lines": [ 75.513334, 75.002727, 73.660714, 72.259569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.199997, "volume": 21599344, "typical_volume": 12137378.85, "trend": 70.953333, "fair_value": 58.072436, "relative_strength": -16.658115, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.016355, "energy": 79.750557, "activity_lines": [ 75.856666, 75.269999, 74.072142, 72.614838 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.25, "volume": 16848197, "typical_volume": 12275840.2, "trend": 71.299999, "fair_value": 58.290705, "relative_strength": -15.973264, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.137285, "energy": 79.423605, "activity_lines": [ 76.693333, 75.874545, 74.635475, 73.085591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }