{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6907325f-dd35-4cc6-969e-2b202ef1880e", "symbol": "600180", "name": "CCS Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.126, "architecture_energy": 47.904, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.607, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.89, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 26.94, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 35.22, "downward_expansion": 63.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.48, 1.419091, 1.62819, 2.040301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.5, "trend_reference": 2.576667, "distance_from_trend": -0.417853, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.243665, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.646532, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.378771, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.604222, "excess_performance": -0.561018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.417853, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.646532, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186028, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.553788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.604222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.873613, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149765887, "relative_activity": 1.556776, "balance": 0.873613, "dry_up": 1.751649, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189231, "annualized_volatility": 0.800248, "from_high_reference": -0.704142, "from_low_reference": 0.327434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.576667, "fair_value_reference": 4.243665, "structural_low": 1.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.011388, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.191259, "worst_return": -0.496622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.067633, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.091974, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.218863, "worst_return": -0.55836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.046699, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.150442, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.006201, "worst_return": -0.620596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 1.321333, 1.385455, 1.939714, 2.373462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.45, "volume": 246244980, "typical_volume": 88027120.05, "trend": 2.801333, "fair_value": 4.326728, "relative_strength": -57.444561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.020395, "energy": 60.286319, "activity_lines": [ 1.372, 1.371091, 1.843, 2.280796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.33, "volume": 136915499, "typical_volume": 90483488.95, "trend": 2.713, "fair_value": 4.297832, "relative_strength": -60.701862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.357358, "energy": 57.212985, "activity_lines": [ 1.374, 1.353818, 1.746, 2.185871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.6, "volume": 141126381, "typical_volume": 93341091.1, "trend": 2.643333, "fair_value": 4.270977, "relative_strength": -52.032802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.864011, "energy": 51.23563, "activity_lines": [ 1.459333, 1.396545, 1.686524, 2.114065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.5, "volume": 149765887, "typical_volume": 96202599.7, "trend": 2.576667, "fair_value": 4.243665, "relative_strength": -55.378771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.125799, "energy": 47.904439, "activity_lines": [ 1.48, 1.419091, 1.62819, 2.040301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }