{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6909d703-c4fe-486e-81be-e76fa26d6a5c", "symbol": "OPRT", "name": "Oportun Financial Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.272, "architecture_energy": 71.737, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.731, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.97, "rotation_up": 73.14, "upward_expansion": 87.04, "deceleration": 46.25, "rotation_down": 11.08, "downward_expansion": 13.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.492667, 6.123091, 5.799119, 5.596161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.09, "trend_reference": 5.409833, "distance_from_trend": 0.495425, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.774135, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.694548, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 28.437114, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.439502, "excess_performance": 0.252048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.495425, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042625, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.694548, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.492939, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.284371, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.456404, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.439502, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.899946, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5195943, "relative_activity": 2.120622, "balance": 0.899946, "dry_up": 1.153032, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101333, "annualized_volatility": 0.757485, "from_high_reference": -0.025301, "from_low_reference": 1.007444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.409833, "fair_value_reference": 4.774135, "structural_low": 4.03, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.01626, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031891, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.487535, "worst_return": -0.632504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013269, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.070962, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.415385, "worst_return": -0.634294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.252281, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.323366, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.746154, "worst_return": -0.424886, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 5.59, "volume": 1744931, "typical_volume": 2480457.25, "trend": 5.2995, "fair_value": 4.764583, "relative_strength": -6.545623, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.48406, "energy": 52.993143, "activity_lines": [ 5.835333, 5.656727, 5.520119, 5.401645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.54, "volume": 1667404, "typical_volume": 2343573.95, "trend": 5.3155, "fair_value": 4.765096, "relative_strength": -7.383278, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.915243, "energy": 32.817299, "activity_lines": [ 5.732, 5.658909, 5.541238, 5.417161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.09, "volume": 5195943, "typical_volume": 2450197.9, "trend": 5.409833, "fair_value": 4.774135, "relative_strength": 28.437114, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.271952, "energy": 71.7368, "activity_lines": [ 6.492667, 6.123091, 5.799119, 5.596161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }