{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6913bc81-9b96-4dcc-8d82-3e157cf718f7", "symbol": "FTEC", "name": "FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST MSCI INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.399, "architecture_energy": 38.674, "architecture_maturity": 60.968, "architecture_confidence": 94.26, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.36, "rotation_up": 38.34, "upward_expansion": 64.88, "deceleration": 93.54, "rotation_down": 28.28, "downward_expansion": 14.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 277.566, 276.874555, 272.98679, 261.653896 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 289.84, "trend_reference": 247.687406, "distance_from_trend": 0.170185, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 186.853889, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.551159, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.792044, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.316282, "excess_performance": 0.190657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.170185, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075849, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price 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"A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.018687, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.003293, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.111932, "worst_return": -0.119317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.076951, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.020374, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169781, "worst_return": -0.194388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.198074, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.051623, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214734, "worst_return": -0.0216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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46.769073, "activity_lines": [ 278.337931, 278.383638, 264.981308, 253.454696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 270.13, "volume": 1538012, "typical_volume": 1960173.65, "trend": 242.671675, "fair_value": 183.973634, "relative_strength": 7.206426, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.148132, "energy": 35.574495, "activity_lines": [ 275.473333, 277.096753, 266.901187, 255.323263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 270.52, "volume": 1328145, "typical_volume": 1891915.05, "trend": 244.080362, "fair_value": 184.864954, "relative_strength": 7.736466, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.125668, "energy": 31.836991, "activity_lines": [ 273.306, 275.843861, 268.600943, 257.11993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 270.1, "volume": 1748046, "typical_volume": 1855385.05, "trend": 245.583159, "fair_value": 185.785344, "relative_strength": 6.182676, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.12271, "energy": 26.82941, "activity_lines": [ 272.066667, 274.510376, 269.990839, 258.798616 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 289.84, "volume": 1731354, "typical_volume": 1791672.85, "trend": 247.687406, "fair_value": 186.853889, "relative_strength": 9.792044, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.399334, "energy": 38.674092, "activity_lines": [ 277.566, 276.874555, 272.98679, 261.653896 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }