{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69172413-347b-4e31-a5d4-378a67d4fa87", "symbol": "MX", "name": "Methanex Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.374, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.747, "architecture_energy": 13.112, "architecture_maturity": 28.419, "architecture_confidence": 75.838, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.34, "rotation_up": 46.36, "upward_expansion": 32.31, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 24.49, "downward_expansion": 25.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.074001, 74.425989, 76.823547, 76.858269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 74.199997, "trend_reference": 75.226073, "distance_from_trend": -0.01364, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 59.996917, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.23673, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.51188, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.154629, "excess_performance": 0.034207, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01364, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102981, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.23673, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176199, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015119, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259945, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.154629, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.928411, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1228700, "relative_activity": 0.991819, "balance": 0.928411, "dry_up": 1.114131, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083415, "annualized_volatility": 0.492915, "from_high_reference": -0.201893, "from_low_reference": 0.686744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.226073, "fair_value_reference": 59.996917, "structural_low": 62.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.039755, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.028473, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.294187, "worst_return": -0.071071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.066232, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.01399, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.29133, "worst_return": -0.022913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.216235, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.111791, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.400666, "worst_return": 0.041801, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 59.603986, "relative_strength": 9.87792, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.294342, "energy": 49.456055, "activity_lines": [ 71.071332, 73.977081, 77.325037, 76.319527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 78.720001, "volume": 979000, "typical_volume": 1362685.0, "trend": 74.179572, "fair_value": 59.75329, "relative_strength": 11.806867, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.194894, "energy": 22.682224, "activity_lines": [ 73.689333, 74.319548, 77.374726, 76.663903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.910004, "volume": 1803500, "typical_volume": 1303405.0, "trend": 74.917758, "fair_value": 59.887148, "relative_strength": 10.526475, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.571072, "energy": 9.451186, "activity_lines": [ 75.827335, 74.665344, 77.292805, 76.904576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.199997, "volume": 1228700, "typical_volume": 1238835.0, "trend": 75.226073, "fair_value": 59.996917, "relative_strength": 1.51188, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.746797, "energy": 13.112433, "activity_lines": [ 76.074001, 74.425989, 76.823547, 76.858269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }