{ "ticker": { "uuid": "691752c2-8964-4306-977f-7ce7a3a2010a", "symbol": "NAH", "name": "NAHL Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.285, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.462, "architecture_energy": 14.512, "architecture_maturity": 10.151, "architecture_confidence": 42.995, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.9, "rotation_up": 16.99, "upward_expansion": 14.07, "deceleration": 62.47, "rotation_down": 52.03, "downward_expansion": 41.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.347267, 0.351873, 0.356633, 0.352366 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.347, "trend_reference": 0.3498, "distance_from_trend": -0.008005, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.544163, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.362324, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.493939, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.057065, "excess_performance": -0.108301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008005, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028243, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.362324, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071374, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033088, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057065, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.578056, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1117, "relative_activity": 0.006491, "balance": 0.578056, "dry_up": 0.127309, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071155, "annualized_volatility": 0.376152, "from_high_reference": -0.40911, "from_low_reference": 0.188356 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.3498, "fair_value_reference": 0.544163, "structural_low": 0.292, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.01173, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.018669, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.179048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.049587, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.066659, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.148997, "worst_return": -0.300405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.166616, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.229016, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.626074, "worst_return": -0.40404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.353779, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.364211, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.563361, "worst_return": -0.507692, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.083665, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.215909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009259, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049618, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02963, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044534, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.052758, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119898, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033426, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.5225, "volume": 89133, "typical_volume": 220976.8, "trend": 0.413167, "fair_value": 0.43208, "relative_strength": 40.072775, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.341, "volume": 63020, "typical_volume": 185313.45, "trend": 0.349933, "fair_value": 0.546179, "relative_strength": -20.718489, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.561199, "energy": 12.597872, "activity_lines": [ 0.349667, 0.357382, 0.356952, 0.352759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.347, "volume": 2346, "typical_volume": 178239.0, "trend": 0.350167, "fair_value": 0.545176, "relative_strength": -19.383223, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.445291, "energy": 15.400213, "activity_lines": [ 0.348133, 0.354218, 0.356814, 0.35257 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.347, "volume": 1117, "typical_volume": 172082.75, "trend": 0.3498, "fair_value": 0.544163, "relative_strength": -18.493939, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.461622, "energy": 14.512193, "activity_lines": [ 0.347267, 0.351873, 0.356633, 0.352366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }