{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69187d00-694f-46b4-9afc-097fc34da8ec", "symbol": "SM", "name": "SM Energy Co", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.041, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.193, "architecture_energy": 30.748, "architecture_maturity": 19.677, "architecture_confidence": 66.823, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.24, "rotation_up": 58.28, "upward_expansion": 67.62, "deceleration": 55.03, "rotation_down": 14.7, "downward_expansion": 13.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.966667, 29.971319, 29.983269, 29.301484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.88, "trend_reference": 27.470406, "distance_from_trend": 0.051313, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.483645, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.110937, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.335654, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.390992, "excess_performance": 0.265368, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051313, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159151, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.110937, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013185, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033357, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06107, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.390992, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.174688, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24334452, "relative_activity": 1.168012, "balance": 1.174688, "dry_up": 0.854035, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119918, "annualized_volatility": 0.550794, "from_high_reference": -0.189624, "from_low_reference": 0.685947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.470406, "fair_value_reference": 32.483645, "structural_low": 18.959747, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.018182, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.006361, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.260061, "worst_return": -0.142772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.09252, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.097867, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.83589, "worst_return": -0.09169, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.420231, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.204596, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.800584, "worst_return": -0.096311, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.141793, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048141, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.205084, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.30498, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.241733, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120731, 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29.094407, 29.447177, 28.351411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.19, "volume": 18137702, "typical_volume": 22474173.4, "trend": 26.635521, "fair_value": 32.553286, "relative_strength": 24.197799, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.079234, "energy": 28.988692, "activity_lines": [ 30.313333, 29.692275, 29.817516, 28.806451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.52, "volume": 13784076, "typical_volume": 21328292.15, "trend": 27.09147, "fair_value": 32.534345, "relative_strength": 20.263642, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.258721, "energy": 47.875671, "activity_lines": [ 31.452667, 30.153415, 30.087799, 29.186095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.88, "volume": 24334452, "typical_volume": 20834081.65, "trend": 27.470406, "fair_value": 32.483645, "relative_strength": 3.335654, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.192714, "energy": 30.748277, "activity_lines": [ 30.966667, 29.971319, 29.983269, 29.301484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }