{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6924a932-dda2-451f-8e6a-8d3d72204c77", "symbol": "FGM", "name": "FIRST TRUST GERMANY ALPHADEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.004, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.346, "architecture_energy": 24.33, "architecture_maturity": 32.215, "architecture_confidence": 91.759, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.1, "rotation_up": 21.07, "upward_expansion": 7.99, "deceleration": 40.0, "rotation_down": 45.17, "downward_expansion": 74.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.12546, 63.222064, 63.531884, 63.556061 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 63.93, "trend_reference": 64.102411, "distance_from_trend": -0.00269, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.850397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.336039, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.872461, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.070785, "excess_performance": -0.258239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00269, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01393, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.336039, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096331, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098725, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00658, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070785, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.939962, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7408, "relative_activity": 0.211852, "balance": 0.939962, "dry_up": 0.221925, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032152, "annualized_volatility": 0.263251, "from_high_reference": -0.101097, "from_low_reference": 0.173775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.102411, "fair_value_reference": 47.850397, "structural_low": 57.45, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.014225, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.004143, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.108115, "worst_return": -0.027155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032085, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019262, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.160169, "worst_return": -0.020082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0922, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.051461, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.412948, "worst_return": 0.014995, 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63.770842, 63.906341, 63.628867, 63.934244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 62.8937, "volume": 2989, "typical_volume": 54709.2, "trend": 64.114204, "fair_value": 47.20151, "relative_strength": -12.339206, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.292632, "energy": 16.877281, "activity_lines": [ 63.541416, 63.706171, 63.564407, 63.858456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 62.6913, "volume": 13360, "typical_volume": 53159.55, "trend": 64.152914, "fair_value": 47.358103, "relative_strength": -8.664517, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.913607, "energy": 26.670625, "activity_lines": [ 63.252206, 63.483461, 63.510619, 63.766656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.9996, "volume": 2948, "typical_volume": 44647.45, "trend": 64.144068, "fair_value": 47.508851, "relative_strength": -7.993093, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.97914, "energy": 35.239531, "activity_lines": [ 62.787273, 63.183818, 63.42333, 63.627733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.2392, "volume": 7325, "typical_volume": 37866.45, "trend": 64.136041, "fair_value": 47.676382, "relative_strength": -6.528202, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.163774, "energy": 34.080133, "activity_lines": [ 62.85608, 63.133986, 63.454353, 63.569354 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.93, "volume": 7408, "typical_volume": 34967.85, "trend": 64.102411, "fair_value": 47.850397, "relative_strength": -9.872461, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.345631, "energy": 24.329644, "activity_lines": [ 63.12546, 63.222064, 63.531884, 63.556061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }