{ "ticker": { "uuid": "692a0805-be50-49e8-9d76-1576fb9d30d4", "symbol": "VBS", "name": "Vectus Biosystems Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 86.367, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.794, "architecture_energy": 44.509, "architecture_maturity": 19.317, "architecture_confidence": 83.352, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.76, "rotation_up": 58.06, "upward_expansion": 78.4, "deceleration": 52.8, "rotation_down": 17.54, "downward_expansion": 12.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.152, 0.146818, 0.138714, 0.137914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.16, "trend_reference": 0.137167, "distance_from_trend": 0.166464, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.153571, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041867, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.265842, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.142857, "excess_performance": 0.079151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.166464, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055109, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041867, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.352504, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.162658, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018878, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142857, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.288952, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32192, "relative_activity": 0.229992, "balance": 0.288952, "dry_up": 0.820932, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168269, "annualized_volatility": 0.896811, "from_high_reference": -0.648352, "from_low_reference": 2.018868 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.137167, "fair_value_reference": 0.153571, "structural_low": 0.09, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.053805, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.052923, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.396226, "worst_return": -0.3375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.019431, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010091, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.4375, "worst_return": -0.197531, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.102707, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.13397, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.458333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.276923, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.197798, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.728395, "worst_return": -0.666667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-11-18", "end": "2023-01-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145833, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-01-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.900315, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012346, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", 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-30.148883, "energy": 22.431249, "activity_lines": [ 0.132667, 0.127273, 0.130905, 0.133452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.115, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 132321.75, "trend": 0.135167, "fair_value": 0.162962, "relative_strength": -5.601556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.315827, "energy": 23.270015, "activity_lines": [ 0.128, 0.125455, 0.129071, 0.132161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.16, "volume": 134626, "typical_volume": 128329.75, "trend": 0.136833, "fair_value": 0.161231, "relative_strength": 29.406116, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.890115, "energy": 21.66587, "activity_lines": [ 0.138, 0.132182, 0.131714, 0.133763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.175, "volume": 287744, "typical_volume": 138886.55, "trend": 0.139, "fair_value": 0.159596, "relative_strength": 38.9874, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.177004, "energy": 31.126926, "activity_lines": [ 0.150667, 0.140727, 0.13569, 0.136226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.15, "volume": 128726, "typical_volume": 139406.2, "trend": 0.138, "fair_value": 0.157353, "relative_strength": 17.852095, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.475791, "energy": 34.943423, "activity_lines": [ 0.152333, 0.143818, 0.137095, 0.136935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.13, "volume": 10962, "typical_volume": 138740.8, "trend": 0.136833, "fair_value": 0.155429, "relative_strength": -1.177891, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.683585, "energy": 23.400861, "activity_lines": [ 0.147333, 0.142727, 0.136476, 0.136419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.16, "volume": 32192, "typical_volume": 139970.25, "trend": 0.137167, "fair_value": 0.153571, "relative_strength": 16.265842, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.794095, "energy": 44.509332, "activity_lines": [ 0.152, 0.146818, 0.138714, 0.137914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }