{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "692f1b32-4b7d-4954-b87e-a6ba67dc2277",
    "symbol": "TOL",
    "name": "Toll Brothers Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 91.934,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 44.511,
    "architecture_energy": 21.952,
    "architecture_maturity": 37.866,
    "architecture_confidence": 81.856,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 49.86,
        "rotation_up": 34.18,
        "upward_expansion": 60.99,
        "deceleration": 86.2,
        "rotation_down": 23.17,
        "downward_expansion": 13.32
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        150.642,
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        146.253893
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 155.09,
    "trend_reference": 145.893032,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.063039,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 123.186888,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258981,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -2.774907,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.013686,
    "excess_performance": -0.111939,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063039,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033738,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.258981,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.081577,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.027749,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05249,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.013686,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.438697,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3325462,
      "relative_activity": 0.644419,
      "balance": 1.438697,
      "dry_up": 0.821849,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.069832,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.33969,
      "from_high_reference": -0.07711,
      "from_low_reference": 0.276924
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    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 123.186888,
      "structural_low": 123.145,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 31,
        "median_return": 0.017206,
        "positive_rate": 0.548387,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.548387,
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        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.583333,
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        "worst_return": -0.319991,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
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        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "typical_volume": 6130008.55,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 6076167.6,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "relative_strength": -4.50106,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 5578628.05,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 5704561.25,
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 5956904.1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 5842876.25,
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        "fair_value": 118.385921,
        "relative_strength": -9.847999,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -25.474979,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 141.277102,
        "fair_value": 118.804136,
        "relative_strength": -8.173874,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 141.842746,
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 5789800.7,
        "trend": 143.468168,
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        "relative_strength": 9.460796,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 5690610.0,
        "trend": 144.082254,
        "fair_value": 120.887099,
        "relative_strength": 2.363704,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 4787006,
        "typical_volume": 5571885.1,
        "trend": 144.443459,
        "fair_value": 121.32196,
        "relative_strength": -3.793841,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.420624,
        "energy": 66.498831,
        "activity_lines": [
          154.941851,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 150.76,
        "volume": 5002991,
        "typical_volume": 5566549.2,
        "trend": 144.825741,
        "fair_value": 121.795043,
        "relative_strength": -1.597361,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.026884,
        "energy": 53.914644,
        "activity_lines": [
          153.698084,
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          145.269167
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 149.87,
        "volume": 4519999,
        "typical_volume": 5530359.95,
        "trend": 145.200609,
        "fair_value": 122.253083,
        "relative_strength": -1.680324,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.711818,
        "energy": 30.160595,
        "activity_lines": [
          151.896624,
          151.299254,
          146.29387,
          145.594603
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 145.89,
        "volume": 4115833,
        "typical_volume": 5388739.65,
        "trend": 145.56039,
        "fair_value": 122.690749,
        "relative_strength": -5.312637,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.622921,
        "energy": 17.507865,
        "activity_lines": [
          149.137145,
          150.849671,
          146.589751,
          145.63908
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 155.09,
        "volume": 3325462,
        "typical_volume": 5160401.7,
        "trend": 145.893032,
        "fair_value": 123.186888,
        "relative_strength": -2.774907,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.511318,
        "energy": 21.951729,
        "activity_lines": [
          150.642,
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          146.253893
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}