{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69349076-ce8d-4e88-87ed-f22f94808c22", "symbol": "GCL", "name": "Geiger Counter Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.51, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.884, "architecture_energy": 63.501, "architecture_maturity": 18.99, "architecture_confidence": 91.117, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.21, "rotation_up": 14.01, "upward_expansion": 13.38, "deceleration": 40.13, "rotation_down": 68.1, "downward_expansion": 89.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.578467, 0.597327, 0.636581, 0.660209 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.598, "trend_reference": 0.693233, "distance_from_trend": -0.137376, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.531221, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.125708, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.862578, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191892, "excess_performance": -0.243127, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137376, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030064, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.125708, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.295507, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128626, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.306065, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191892, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.463228, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1253067, "relative_activity": 0.82841, "balance": 0.463228, "dry_up": 0.777547, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105021, "annualized_volatility": 0.339968, "from_high_reference": -0.35663, "from_low_reference": 0.407059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.693233, "fair_value_reference": 0.531221, "structural_low": 0.53525, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.018987, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.028234, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.286957, "worst_return": -0.191919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.108728, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.130754, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.13, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.228934, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.18498, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.65035, "worst_return": -0.055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.271628, "energy": 73.324568, "activity_lines": [ 0.591267, 0.618255, 0.655019, 0.676032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.55, "volume": 1720811, "typical_volume": 1650244.1, "trend": 0.695633, "fair_value": 0.52992, "relative_strength": -19.548798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.288045, "energy": 78.241136, "activity_lines": [ 0.573867, 0.6022, 0.643157, 0.666508 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.598, "volume": 1253067, "typical_volume": 1512617.75, "trend": 0.693233, "fair_value": 0.531221, "relative_strength": -12.862578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.884443, "energy": 63.501197, "activity_lines": [ 0.578467, 0.597327, 0.636581, 0.660209 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }