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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.545, "architecture_energy": 52.206, "architecture_maturity": 16.365, "architecture_confidence": 71.184, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.38, "rotation_up": 58.03, "upward_expansion": 78.29, "deceleration": 56.24, "rotation_down": 18.45, "downward_expansion": 7.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.160456, 50.139816, 50.10832, 50.073079 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 50.24, "trend_reference": 50.011901, "distance_from_trend": 0.004561, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.556548, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056427, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.057974, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008047, "excess_performance": -0.117578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004561, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003882, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056427, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007803, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000591, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008047, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.37223, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 790966, "relative_activity": 1.002467, "balance": 1.37223, "dry_up": 0.916913, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001839, "annualized_volatility": 0.008819, "from_high_reference": -0.000199, "from_low_reference": 0.028843 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.011901, "fair_value_reference": 47.556548, "structural_low": 49.848798, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.11079, "energy": 39.386287, "activity_lines": [ 50.111632, 50.099361, 50.069639, 50.02661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.114105, "volume": 815164, "typical_volume": 800737.6, "trend": 49.963774, "fair_value": 47.434285, "relative_strength": -7.509309, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.17417, "energy": 34.939995, "activity_lines": [ 50.109047, 50.105509, 50.076788, 50.037394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.096161, "volume": 502661, "typical_volume": 777131.8, "trend": 49.978681, "fair_value": 47.474977, "relative_strength": -6.763642, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.053541, "energy": 21.730925, "activity_lines": [ 50.101342, 50.106872, 50.081647, 50.045935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.153981, "volume": 785056, "typical_volume": 776637.25, "trend": 49.994562, "fair_value": 47.515641, "relative_strength": -7.36748, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.22812, "energy": 29.897102, "activity_lines": [ 50.115301, 50.116828, 50.091414, 50.057245 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.24, "volume": 790966, "typical_volume": 789019.3, "trend": 50.011901, "fair_value": 47.556548, "relative_strength": -10.057974, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.544509, "energy": 52.205513, "activity_lines": [ 50.160456, 50.139816, 50.10832, 50.073079 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }