{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "693583f3-3db8-46bf-bb14-83dab8d7132c",
    "symbol": "UST",
    "name": "Amundi Core Nasdaq-100 Swap UCITS ETF Acc",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 47.291,
    "architecture_energy": 30.578,
    "architecture_maturity": 69.025,
    "architecture_confidence": 92.114,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.08,
        "rotation_up": 31.43,
        "upward_expansion": 62.23,
        "deceleration": 85.49,
        "rotation_down": 30.83,
        "downward_expansion": 21.23
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        102.244667,
        103.265964,
        102.418271,
        99.164207
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 104.650002,
    "trend_reference": 95.108834,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.100318,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 77.404022,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.351997,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 7.20662,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.220693,
    "excess_performance": 0.167381,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.100318,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.060112,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.351997,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.017741,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.072066,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.094931,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.220693,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.893392,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 112938,
      "relative_activity": 1.156517,
      "balance": 1.893392,
      "dry_up": 0.924049,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.034304,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.18653,
      "from_high_reference": -0.029401,
      "from_low_reference": 0.310861
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 95.108834,
      "fair_value_reference": 77.404022,
      "structural_low": 81.769997,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.016735,
        "positive_rate": 0.777778,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.777778,
        "median_excess_return": 0.012299,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.088814,
        "worst_return": -0.012336,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.05425,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.050777,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.167051,
        "worst_return": -0.116705,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.085916,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.065985,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.211624,
        "worst_return": 0.00176,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.147288,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.095467,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.289056,
        "worst_return": -0.140359,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-10-13",
        "end": "2023-11-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.020334,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.132434,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030475,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.028803,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.098042,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.059644,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.116346,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.167789,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.011375,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.040542,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.076942,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.102764,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-08",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.01177,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033172,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 107109.3,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 124006.25,
        "trend": 87.38055,
        "fair_value": 72.691888,
        "relative_strength": 10.186199,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "fair_value": 72.990349,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 126588.0,
        "trend": 88.14885,
        "fair_value": 73.319119,
        "relative_strength": 16.69967,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 129214.5,
        "trend": 88.71855,
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        "relative_strength": 20.856554,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "direction": 91.445527,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 130785.0,
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.227585,
        "energy": 95.056733,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 131283.45,
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        "fair_value": 74.302035,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 90.3131,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 32659,
        "typical_volume": 122372.7,
        "trend": 90.862834,
        "fair_value": 74.936548,
        "relative_strength": 14.632801,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 92.148134,
        "fair_value": 75.590394,
        "relative_strength": 13.465731,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.183312,
        "energy": 65.899318,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 105152.5,
        "trend": 92.680067,
        "fair_value": 75.912176,
        "relative_strength": 12.389533,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 105.93,
        "volume": 125026,
        "typical_volume": 102678.55,
        "trend": 93.309134,
        "fair_value": 76.232509,
        "relative_strength": 14.644727,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 101.610001,
        "volume": 90855,
        "typical_volume": 101815.15,
        "trend": 93.771467,
        "fair_value": 76.52567,
        "relative_strength": 9.604981,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.239055,
        "energy": 51.21765,
        "activity_lines": [
          104.334667,
          104.692582,
          101.250509,
          97.699854
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 101.290001,
        "volume": 66373,
        "typical_volume": 97381.2,
        "trend": 94.2079,
        "fair_value": 76.807721,
        "relative_strength": 8.478236,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.287594,
        "energy": 40.446188,
        "activity_lines": [
          103.076667,
          104.0888,
          101.660438,
          98.184921
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 99.349998,
        "volume": 90781,
        "typical_volume": 96809.1,
        "trend": 94.613167,
        "fair_value": 77.084727,
        "relative_strength": 4.49046,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.987444,
        "energy": 27.591491,
        "activity_lines": [
          101.604667,
          103.154618,
          101.816781,
          98.516669
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 104.650002,
        "volume": 112938,
        "typical_volume": 97653.6,
        "trend": 95.108834,
        "fair_value": 77.404022,
        "relative_strength": 7.20662,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.291395,
        "energy": 30.578452,
        "activity_lines": [
          102.244667,
          103.265964,
          102.418271,
          99.164207
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}