{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6937dc53-c9df-4293-ac17-486d2149fa95", "symbol": "600189", "name": "Jilin Quanyangquan Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.104, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.715, "architecture_energy": 45.755, "architecture_maturity": 8.592, "architecture_confidence": 80.378, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.74, "rotation_up": 14.53, "upward_expansion": 7.22, "deceleration": 45.64, "rotation_down": 57.59, "downward_expansion": 78.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.216667, 7.316909, 7.602714, 7.724581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.39, "trend_reference": 7.84, "distance_from_trend": -0.057398, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.804487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.053109, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.866173, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.11497, "excess_performance": -0.071766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057398, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009399, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.053109, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1516, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045458, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11497, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.021706, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49160491, "relative_activity": 1.045225, "balance": 1.021706, "dry_up": 1.48309, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074737, "annualized_volatility": 0.295306, "from_high_reference": -0.195865, "from_low_reference": 0.081991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.84, "fair_value_reference": 7.804487, "structural_low": 6.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.019011, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.008793, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.182504, "worst_return": -0.145374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01931, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.010213, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.273247, "worst_return": -0.201493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045517, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.020407, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.875839, "worst_return": -0.240938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.02458, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.059868, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.29698, "worst_return": -0.28678, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021521, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057061, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088384, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.033195, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023841, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002389, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063321, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110526, "active": false 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"relative_strength": -0.760173, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.018896, "energy": 54.845842, "activity_lines": [ 7.342, 7.559636, 7.776524, 7.847441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.88, "volume": 75557770, "typical_volume": 45905314.75, "trend": 7.817, "fair_value": 7.793077, "relative_strength": -5.983323, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.833712, "energy": 69.573663, "activity_lines": [ 7.16, 7.393455, 7.682857, 7.785935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.3, "volume": 64489189, "typical_volume": 46723365.15, "trend": 7.824, "fair_value": 7.799103, "relative_strength": -0.518664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.70933, "energy": 64.40357, "activity_lines": [ 7.169333, 7.336909, 7.636429, 7.752581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.39, "volume": 49160491, "typical_volume": 47033416.6, "trend": 7.84, "fair_value": 7.804487, "relative_strength": -1.866173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.715498, "energy": 45.755168, "activity_lines": [ 7.216667, 7.316909, 7.602714, 7.724581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }