{ "ticker": { "uuid": "693e0208-7322-4a9f-a4b9-81b076375806", "symbol": "8038", "name": "Changs Ascending Enterprise Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.427, "architecture_energy": 84.439, "architecture_maturity": 64.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.909, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.59, "rotation_up": 11.08, "upward_expansion": 21.84, "deceleration": 34.18, "rotation_down": 80.84, "downward_expansion": 95.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.603333, 35.552727, 38.105715, 39.41742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.1, "trend_reference": 41.718333, "distance_from_trend": -0.254524, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.405128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.201631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.32244, "excess_performance": -0.763812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.254524, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051856, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121596, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230233, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.512016, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.32244, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.202081, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 845244, "relative_activity": 0.395275, "balance": 1.202081, "dry_up": 0.443509, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125031, "annualized_volatility": 0.460545, "from_high_reference": -0.506349, "from_low_reference": 0.029801 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.718333, "fair_value_reference": 35.405128, "structural_low": 30.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.018076, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.053459, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.405152, "worst_return": -0.277027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01589, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019813, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.608607, "worst_return": -0.168478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020886, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.086745, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.997951, "worst_return": -0.161644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.819189, "energy": 32.081805, "activity_lines": [ 40.290001, 40.590001, 41.168096, 42.13699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.5, "volume": 964661, "typical_volume": 2377785.7, "trend": 43.69, "fair_value": 35.725962, "relative_strength": -42.480083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.992931, "energy": 40.231176, "activity_lines": [ 39.000001, 39.811819, 40.696905, 41.66043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.549999, "volume": 1285499, "typical_volume": 2304978.75, "trend": 43.195, "fair_value": 35.619872, "relative_strength": -49.072448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.71702, "energy": 69.219075, "activity_lines": [ 36.346667, 38.209091, 39.775715, 40.877205 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.099998, "volume": 698140, "typical_volume": 2168517.35, "trend": 42.631667, "fair_value": 35.513782, "relative_strength": -48.796532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.93181, "energy": 81.258333, "activity_lines": [ 34.373333, 36.890909, 38.961905, 40.161398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 31.1, "volume": 845244, "typical_volume": 2138368.55, "trend": 41.718333, "fair_value": 35.405128, "relative_strength": -51.201631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.427232, "energy": 84.438982, "activity_lines": [ 32.603333, 35.552727, 38.105715, 39.41742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }