{ "ticker": { "uuid": "693fb1af-338e-43ea-a7c9-47590eefac1f", "symbol": "TTI", "name": "Thai Textile Industry Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.168, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.473, "architecture_energy": 20.658, "architecture_maturity": 47.001, "architecture_confidence": 70.538, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.92, "rotation_up": 20.43, "upward_expansion": 53.31, "deceleration": 89.93, "rotation_down": 40.61, "downward_expansion": 21.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.883333, 26.122727, 26.07619, 25.891871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.0, "trend_reference": 25.640667, "distance_from_trend": 0.014014, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.993538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040269, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.954497, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020408, "excess_performance": -0.171917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014014, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030866, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040269, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043428, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035352, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020408, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.285714, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1200, "relative_activity": 1.061947, "balance": 0.285714, "dry_up": 0.730088, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025444, "annualized_volatility": 0.250698, "from_high_reference": -0.170918, "from_low_reference": 0.184402 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.640667, "fair_value_reference": 24.993538, "structural_low": 24.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.026087, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.011306, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.212963, "worst_return": -0.10084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.080065, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.052427, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.045045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.138889, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.134522, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.421052, "worst_return": 0.068762, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.119175, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.195725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.39353, "worst_return": -0.00295, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037975, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.107843, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004098, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.179688, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084615, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138393, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038095, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081633, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067961, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114583, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009615, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009709, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 24.30377, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 2635.0, "trend": 25.668528, "fair_value": 22.702625, "relative_strength": -3.150114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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25.763636, 25.552381, 25.347075 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 26.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3020.0, "trend": 25.032067, "fair_value": 24.854495, "relative_strength": -11.389538, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.520698, "energy": 33.946714, "activity_lines": [ 26.183333, 25.963636, 25.682238, 25.465277 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 26.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2930.0, "trend": 25.1296, "fair_value": 24.880584, "relative_strength": -11.407478, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.327842, "energy": 31.799354, "activity_lines": [ 26.2, 26.054545, 25.759595, 25.543854 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 27.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2900.0, "trend": 25.297867, "fair_value": 24.90543, "relative_strength": -6.657537, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.776831, "energy": 59.7262, "activity_lines": [ 26.5, 26.272727, 25.902381, 25.664525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2870.0, "trend": 25.407333, "fair_value": 24.927251, "relative_strength": -10.118977, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.322526, "energy": 73.342686, "activity_lines": [ 26.733333, 26.468182, 26.037929, 25.77434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 2100.0, "trend": 25.49, "fair_value": 24.942662, "relative_strength": -13.515969, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.363287, "energy": 55.378565, "activity_lines": [ 26.55, 26.427273, 26.066333, 25.812576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2085.0, "trend": 25.543267, "fair_value": 24.958073, "relative_strength": -13.915239, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.918555, "energy": 33.86388, "activity_lines": [ 26.35, 26.35, 26.088762, 25.84548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.75, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 2170.0, "trend": 25.614333, "fair_value": 24.970369, "relative_strength": -14.586848, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.825446, "energy": 15.468053, "activity_lines": [ 26.116667, 26.245455, 26.080238, 25.858817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2150.0, "trend": 25.623333, "fair_value": 24.978127, "relative_strength": -13.216004, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.613338, "energy": 19.62276, "activity_lines": [ 25.916667, 26.159091, 26.068095, 25.86757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.0, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 1130.0, "trend": 25.640667, "fair_value": 24.993538, "relative_strength": -10.954497, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.473051, "energy": 20.658391, "activity_lines": [ 25.883333, 26.122727, 26.07619, 25.891871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }