{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69467c3d-3b8b-40f2-a763-992f5584f143", "symbol": "CY1K", "name": "SBF AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.999, "architecture_energy": 81.044, "architecture_maturity": 34.718, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 20.57, "upward_expansion": 20.73, "deceleration": 37.11, "rotation_down": 64.73, "downward_expansion": 96.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.205333, 3.288909, 3.749476, 3.938151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.23, "trend_reference": 4.220667, "distance_from_trend": -0.234718, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.55109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.29028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.930851, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.285398, "excess_performance": -0.350038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.234718, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149345, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.29028, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.41018, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.419309, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276059, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285398, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.457875, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4317, "relative_activity": 0.550185, "balance": 0.457875, "dry_up": 0.971331, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11217, "annualized_volatility": 0.864325, "from_high_reference": -0.630857, "from_low_reference": 0.109966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.220667, "fair_value_reference": 4.55109, "structural_low": 2.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.017953, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.016215, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.526627, "worst_return": -0.294737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.05674, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.063155, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.325581, "worst_return": -0.37554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.054435, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.064387, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 2.042636, "worst_return": -0.384397, "sufficient": true }, { 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.221429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.53125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179487, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": 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3.477333, 3.907636, 4.189905, 4.341742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.34, "volume": 17930, "typical_volume": 7570.95, "trend": 4.571, "fair_value": 4.646026, "relative_strength": -42.109086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.92609, "energy": 69.229844, "activity_lines": [ 3.38, 3.737818, 4.10019, 4.257892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.26, "volume": 10556, "typical_volume": 7839.45, "trend": 4.479667, "fair_value": 4.622692, "relative_strength": -41.692589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.631473, "energy": 78.917679, "activity_lines": [ 3.318667, 3.586545, 4.008762, 4.173312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.13, "volume": 4553, "typical_volume": 7552.25, "trend": 4.390667, "fair_value": 4.598846, "relative_strength": -43.330479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.362707, "energy": 84.025282, "activity_lines": [ 3.25, 3.450545, 3.911524, 4.086237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.17, "volume": 11060, "typical_volume": 7790.75, "trend": 4.304667, "fair_value": 4.574936, "relative_strength": -42.648527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.527586, "energy": 84.361582, "activity_lines": [ 3.211333, 3.350182, 3.82519, 4.007484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.23, "volume": 4317, "typical_volume": 7846.45, "trend": 4.220667, "fair_value": 4.55109, "relative_strength": -41.930851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.998957, "energy": 81.043736, "activity_lines": [ 3.205333, 3.288909, 3.749476, 3.938151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }