{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69478cc1-92a0-4493-b8ad-f51a9a7ffc2f", "symbol": "002442", "name": "Longxing Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.394, "architecture_energy": 48.532, "architecture_maturity": 26.959, "architecture_confidence": 89.886, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.83, "rotation_up": 15.94, "upward_expansion": 7.5, "deceleration": 46.19, "rotation_down": 60.69, "downward_expansion": 80.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.760667, 4.895091, 5.340524, 5.582774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.93, "trend_reference": 5.883, "distance_from_trend": -0.161992, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.444702, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094533, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.11871, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.249619, "excess_performance": -0.257019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161992, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073349, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094533, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277034, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221187, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.249619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.601389, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46202303, "relative_activity": 0.483214, "balance": 0.601389, "dry_up": 0.601193, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160711, "annualized_volatility": 0.739961, "from_high_reference": -0.447309, "from_low_reference": 0.196602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.883, "fair_value_reference": 5.444702, "structural_low": 4.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.012814, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.006231, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.147392, "worst_return": -0.178982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.002101, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018694, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.160752, "worst_return": -0.170897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.041285, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.058935, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.518428, "worst_return": -0.099536, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079137, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045331, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013657, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031008, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064715, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.524522, "energy": 65.827559, "activity_lines": [ 5.138667, 5.469455, 5.753905, 5.918065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.63, "volume": 67536195, "typical_volume": 98520545.05, "trend": 6.037667, "fair_value": 5.446988, "relative_strength": -26.189611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.200127, "energy": 67.496509, "activity_lines": [ 4.952, 5.258, 5.627619, 5.823548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.52, "volume": 64575504, "typical_volume": 98825536.95, "trend": 5.978667, "fair_value": 5.445102, "relative_strength": -27.457499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.187044, "energy": 62.330921, "activity_lines": [ 4.765333, 5.058182, 5.501048, 5.725634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.76, "volume": 51617050, "typical_volume": 97410523.5, "trend": 5.925667, "fair_value": 5.444449, "relative_strength": -21.634793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.236666, "energy": 60.070521, "activity_lines": [ 4.722667, 4.930727, 5.407571, 5.647011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.93, "volume": 46202303, "typical_volume": 95614547.45, "trend": 5.883, "fair_value": 5.444702, "relative_strength": -22.11871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.394485, "energy": 48.53157, "activity_lines": [ 4.760667, 4.895091, 5.340524, 5.582774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }