{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "694b7079-8d1f-4335-a5cd-462d4f371f9a",
    "symbol": "XSEM",
    "name": "iShares ESG Aware MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 86.16,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 29.235,
    "architecture_energy": 24.487,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.148,
    "architecture_confidence": 85.263,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 50.08,
        "rotation_up": 21.91,
        "upward_expansion": 55.08,
        "deceleration": 91.14,
        "rotation_down": 34.17,
        "downward_expansion": 18.75
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        32.286,
        32.81489,
        32.540056,
        31.711586
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 32.689999,
    "trend_reference": 30.713553,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.064351,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 23.155131,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.411782,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 0.469719,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.125689,
    "excess_performance": 0.005267,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.064351,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066374,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.411782,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.07119,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004697,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.080949,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.125689,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.316033,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 11800,
      "relative_activity": 0.218074,
      "balance": 1.316033,
      "dry_up": 0.745241,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.049094,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.2747,
      "from_high_reference": -0.076214,
      "from_low_reference": 0.336769
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 30.713553,
      "fair_value_reference": 23.155131,
      "structural_low": 26.83,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.018459,
        "positive_rate": 0.692308,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.692308,
        "median_excess_return": 0.022882,
        "regime_survival": 0.615385,
        "best_return": 0.138776,
        "worst_return": -0.01742,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.023618,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010321,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.307166,
        "worst_return": -0.001624,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.088303,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.018812,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.251521,
        "worst_return": 0.017053,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.130969,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00218,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.219294,
        "worst_return": 0.042643,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.064359,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.06247,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.045331,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.021297,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02534,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.016878,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.008724,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.123342,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.210724,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.057313,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.039524,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-04-17",
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        "return": 0.138776,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
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        "return": 0.046291,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.017429,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "volume": 52400,
        "typical_volume": 92938.2,
        "trend": 28.036359,
        "fair_value": 21.742368,
        "relative_strength": 2.289285,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 66.720097,
        "energy": 60.397279,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 93568.4,
        "trend": 28.141344,
        "fair_value": 21.824372,
        "relative_strength": 2.173773,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 70.402478,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 32.50758,
        "volume": 52000,
        "typical_volume": 94066.3,
        "trend": 28.350497,
        "fair_value": 21.920557,
        "relative_strength": 8.564594,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 85.594676,
        "energy": 85.841541,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 94553.0,
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        "fair_value": 22.007666,
        "relative_strength": 5.042728,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 94070.0,
        "trend": 28.617721,
        "fair_value": 22.097279,
        "relative_strength": 4.706701,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 69.273372,
        "energy": 74.202592,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 33.232395,
        "volume": 77000,
        "typical_volume": 95380.0,
        "trend": 28.801856,
        "fair_value": 22.19575,
        "relative_strength": 8.283909,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 80.038472,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 13900,
        "typical_volume": 92615.0,
        "trend": 28.945092,
        "fair_value": 22.28418,
        "relative_strength": 4.431346,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 63.342026,
        "energy": 58.885696,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 33.450832,
        "volume": 5800,
        "typical_volume": 88800.0,
        "trend": 29.136846,
        "fair_value": 22.381876,
        "relative_strength": 8.090862,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 85270.0,
        "trend": 29.414452,
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        "relative_strength": 13.383212,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 33.77,
        "volume": 7900,
        "typical_volume": 77640.0,
        "trend": 29.635708,
        "fair_value": 22.598447,
        "relative_strength": 8.471616,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.597837,
        "energy": 72.610092,
        "activity_lines": [
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          31.558387,
          30.720238
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 34.32,
        "volume": 7400,
        "typical_volume": 75710.0,
        "trend": 29.874959,
        "fair_value": 22.704919,
        "relative_strength": 9.191157,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.416703,
        "energy": 78.811768,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.068596,
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          31.022451
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 33.650002,
        "volume": 51300,
        "typical_volume": 75215.0,
        "trend": 30.105688,
        "fair_value": 22.803115,
        "relative_strength": 6.714253,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.306324,
        "energy": 67.499005,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.049806,
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          32.19642,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 31.620001,
        "volume": 66000,
        "typical_volume": 74680.0,
        "trend": 30.258645,
        "fair_value": 22.89004,
        "relative_strength": 0.376914,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.704874,
        "energy": 38.063563,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.228543,
          33.276251,
          32.261912,
          31.363699
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 31.809999,
        "volume": 51600,
        "typical_volume": 66645.0,
        "trend": 30.41322,
        "fair_value": 22.973268,
        "relative_strength": 0.650203,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.639942,
        "energy": 24.7848,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.592667,
          33.05855,
          32.337976,
          31.463787
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 32.130001,
        "volume": 31900,
        "typical_volume": 59725.0,
        "trend": 30.565886,
        "fair_value": 23.061099,
        "relative_strength": 2.018843,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.788191,
        "energy": 23.82012,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.291334,
          32.888968,
          32.423468,
          31.574547
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 32.689999,
        "volume": 11800,
        "typical_volume": 54110.0,
        "trend": 30.713553,
        "fair_value": 23.155131,
        "relative_strength": 0.469719,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.234697,
        "energy": 24.486728,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.286,
          32.81489,
          32.540056,
          31.711586
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}