{ "ticker": { "uuid": "694fb99f-7f8b-4337-9f68-481315731c3f", "symbol": "NOBL", "name": "ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.071, "architecture_energy": 63.039, "architecture_maturity": 99.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.104, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.39, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 49.61, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 992.386686, 987.346933, 1210.318919, 1388.335504 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 990.400024, "trend_reference": 1592.486369, "distance_from_trend": -0.378079, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1784.034632, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.444854, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.02687, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.470634, "excess_performance": -0.415967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.378079, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161174, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.444854, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.474082, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.440269, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323386, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.470634, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.147651, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.147651, "dry_up": 1.300885, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089793, "annualized_volatility": 0.985404, "from_high_reference": -0.502396, "from_low_reference": 0.073248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1592.486369, "fair_value_reference": 1784.034632, "structural_low": 922.806458, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.007608, "positive_rate": 0.62963, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.00108, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.113333, "worst_return": -0.482667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010183, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.006017, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.149678, "worst_return": -0.043977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007035, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.071651, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.106532, "worst_return": -0.082006, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003148, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012105, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007456, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008247, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", 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"down", "direction": -67.328704, "energy": 88.510663, "activity_lines": [ 985.773739, 1132.58113, 1420.461497, 1562.513435 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 996.0, "volume": 39, "typical_volume": 23.95, "trend": 1681.732324, "fair_value": 1796.151085, "relative_strength": -45.654425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.959694, "energy": 68.002319, "activity_lines": [ 992.315865, 1073.671069, 1361.427351, 1516.332588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 990.400024, "volume": 98, "typical_volume": 27.75, "trend": 1651.452913, "fair_value": 1792.221454, "relative_strength": -45.056462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.910307, "energy": 68.108376, "activity_lines": [ 994.200008, 1029.66042, 1306.334176, 1471.730504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 990.400024, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 28.25, "trend": 1621.969641, "fair_value": 1788.128043, "relative_strength": -44.764702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.509501, "energy": 67.483698, "activity_lines": [ 993.573348, 1000.765174, 1255.964699, 1429.08193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 990.400024, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 28.25, "trend": 1592.486369, "fair_value": 1784.034632, "relative_strength": -44.02687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.070822, "energy": 63.038889, "activity_lines": [ 992.386686, 987.346933, 1210.318919, 1388.335504 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }