{ "ticker": { "uuid": "695345ef-1fc3-4713-9200-e6b2176bf34e", "symbol": "300658", "name": "Xiamen Yanjan New Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.282, "architecture_energy": 80.683, "architecture_maturity": 43.217, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.5, "rotation_up": 27.28, "upward_expansion": 19.39, "deceleration": 38.93, "rotation_down": 60.09, "downward_expansion": 95.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.094667, 10.65314, 12.929892, 15.28219 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.7, "trend_reference": 17.25127, "distance_from_trend": -0.379756, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.379397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276942, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.640895, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.405556, "excess_performance": -0.412955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.379756, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001617, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276942, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.603366, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246409, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.793751, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.405556, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.384109, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42447319, "relative_activity": 0.569688, "balance": 0.384109, "dry_up": 0.695111, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.169379, "annualized_volatility": 1.013451, "from_high_reference": -0.654839, "from_low_reference": 0.688545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.25127, "fair_value_reference": 8.379397, "structural_low": 8.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.012232, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.009395, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.239412, "worst_return": -0.149354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.042339, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.032547, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.362318, "worst_return": -0.175376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.14467, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.066601, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.326593, "worst_return": -0.140462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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17.571603, "fair_value": 8.312596, "relative_strength": -28.224089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.611289, "energy": 89.453589, "activity_lines": [ 10.984667, 11.659293, 15.058579, 16.738565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.36, "volume": 61728937, "typical_volume": 84894154.3, "trend": 17.493603, "fair_value": 8.331288, "relative_strength": -31.228059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.402225, "energy": 89.424035, "activity_lines": [ 10.308, 11.080714, 14.198921, 16.208784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.82, "volume": 48980489, "typical_volume": 78690359.45, "trend": 17.388603, "fair_value": 8.352804, "relative_strength": -26.94463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.141112, "energy": 87.014253, "activity_lines": [ 9.996667, 10.758853, 13.482597, 15.713713 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.7, "volume": 42447319, "typical_volume": 74509800.8, "trend": 17.25127, "fair_value": 8.379397, "relative_strength": -24.640895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.282324, "energy": 80.682732, "activity_lines": [ 10.094667, 10.65314, 12.929892, 15.28219 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }