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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.104, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.558, "architecture_energy": 30.736, "architecture_maturity": 43.387, "architecture_confidence": 79.227, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.47, "rotation_up": 37.47, "upward_expansion": 67.28, "deceleration": 89.8, "rotation_down": 28.38, "downward_expansion": 9.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 122.464667, 122.345266, 121.474232, 120.10298 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 126.2, "trend_reference": 118.954186, "distance_from_trend": 0.060913, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 102.907591, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.226343, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.928351, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064525, "excess_performance": -0.0611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060913, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027335, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.226343, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013335, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029284, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007783, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064525, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.343521, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2578748, "relative_activity": 0.582568, "balance": 1.343521, "dry_up": 0.78086, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032758, "annualized_volatility": 0.208633, "from_high_reference": -0.002372, "from_low_reference": 0.1869 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 118.954186, "fair_value_reference": 102.907591, "structural_low": 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119.289485, 118.506828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 123.63, "volume": 2923169, "typical_volume": 8771821.95, "trend": 117.667793, "fair_value": 101.887129, "relative_strength": -1.849482, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.823908, "energy": 54.250465, "activity_lines": [ 122.969643, 122.025018, 119.815665, 118.915951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 122.65, "volume": 4824939, "typical_volume": 8874436.95, "trend": 118.022466, "fair_value": 102.084772, "relative_strength": -3.801336, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.418527, "energy": 48.291594, "activity_lines": [ 123.052578, 122.294587, 120.235615, 119.237384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 120.04, "volume": 3534710, "typical_volume": 8900267.35, "trend": 118.272527, "fair_value": 102.272474, "relative_strength": -4.245282, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.324634, "energy": 28.073699, "activity_lines": [ 122.019333, 122.003709, 120.402875, 119.367547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 119.18, "volume": 3066453, "typical_volume": 8799561.65, "trend": 118.447291, "fair_value": 102.450238, "relative_strength": -4.234697, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.764952, "energy": 17.303658, "activity_lines": [ 120.868, 121.584765, 120.497767, 119.426094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 121.425, "volume": 4646057, "typical_volume": 4935546.4, "trend": 118.685975, "fair_value": 102.663065, "relative_strength": -3.40747, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.446363, "energy": 16.490227, "activity_lines": [ 120.859667, 121.539108, 120.782021, 119.618204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 126.2, "volume": 2578748, "typical_volume": 4426521.2, "trend": 118.954186, "fair_value": 102.907591, "relative_strength": -2.928351, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.557756, "energy": 30.736236, "activity_lines": [ 122.464667, 122.345266, 121.474232, 120.10298 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }