{ "ticker": { "uuid": "695d4a79-8800-4a96-9993-27c62622aa36", "symbol": "SOCIAL", "name": "Sociallite US AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.842, "architecture_energy": 28.056, "architecture_maturity": 52.461, "architecture_confidence": 81.892, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.33, "rotation_up": 22.53, "upward_expansion": 2.43, "deceleration": 54.43, "rotation_down": 42.49, "downward_expansion": 73.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.5016, 0.511091, 0.549105, 0.599714 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.438, "trend_reference": 0.683267, "distance_from_trend": -0.358962, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.248032, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.649047, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.521257, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.523913, "excess_performance": -0.585407, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.358962, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09982, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.649047, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097083, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.355213, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104673, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.523913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.908663, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81862, "relative_activity": 0.197319, "balance": 2.908663, "dry_up": 0.487338, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.503512, "annualized_volatility": 1.607533, "from_high_reference": -0.767021, "from_low_reference": 0.972973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.683267, "fair_value_reference": 1.248032, "structural_low": 0.225, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 52, "median_return": -0.092729, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.091204, "regime_survival": 0.942308, "best_return": 0.54717, "worst_return": -0.594306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.298712, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.258622, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.607407, "worst_return": -0.684932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.536432, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.449881, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 2.723404, "worst_return": -0.810298, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-04-28", "end": "2023-07-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.383929, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.919178, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.518644, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118519, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.508876, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.515867, 0.532691, 0.592986, 0.657649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.576, "volume": 244342, "typical_volume": 535054.8, "trend": 0.749733, "fair_value": 1.357737, "relative_strength": -9.568607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.600496, "energy": 26.555306, "activity_lines": [ 0.536533, 0.538218, 0.58791, 0.644991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6, "volume": 133410, "typical_volume": 515662.9, "trend": 0.7284, "fair_value": 1.325045, "relative_strength": -8.03797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.200441, "energy": 18.134576, "activity_lines": [ 0.5628, 0.546364, 0.584995, 0.635331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.448, "volume": 349118, "typical_volume": 468819.65, "trend": 0.709667, "fair_value": 1.284968, "relative_strength": -32.535141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.513288, "energy": 20.285722, "activity_lines": [ 0.531867, 0.528291, 0.567033, 0.617241 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.438, "volume": 81862, "typical_volume": 414871.9, "trend": 0.683267, "fair_value": 1.248032, "relative_strength": -35.521257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.842303, "energy": 28.055628, "activity_lines": [ 0.5016, 0.511091, 0.549105, 0.599714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }