{ "ticker": { "uuid": "695d6cce-2b41-4a60-8d10-8905bd4067d3", "symbol": "NVA", "name": "Nova Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.866, "architecture_energy": 53.552, "architecture_maturity": 29.515, "architecture_confidence": 79.671, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.44, "rotation_up": 16.25, "upward_expansion": 7.69, "deceleration": 53.89, "rotation_down": 67.12, "downward_expansion": 83.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.563333, 0.584273, 0.635119, 0.668731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.63, "trend_reference": 0.7435, "distance_from_trend": -0.152656, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.431186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.461087, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.601526, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152656, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147036, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.461087, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.397088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325235, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.42052, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1852468, "relative_activity": 0.912036, "balance": 1.42052, "dry_up": 0.720929, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118742, "annualized_volatility": 0.656379, "from_high_reference": -0.631579, "from_low_reference": 1.470588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.7435, "fair_value_reference": 0.431186, "structural_low": 0.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.485714, "directional_follow_through": 0.485714, "median_excess_return": -0.018058, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.403509, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.145251, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.175898, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 2.5, "worst_return": -0.340426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.088, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.115786, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 2.946429, "worst_return": -0.538462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126761, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.512605, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.679739, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094675, "active": false }, { 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0.428045, "relative_strength": -26.522329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.380296, "energy": 84.620301, "activity_lines": [ 0.546333, 0.609909, 0.653048, 0.692226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.52, "volume": 1275949, "typical_volume": 2158027.6, "trend": 0.753, "fair_value": 0.429231, "relative_strength": -31.886592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.693058, "energy": 84.9141, "activity_lines": [ 0.533667, 0.585364, 0.638262, 0.676667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.63, "volume": 1852468, "typical_volume": 2031134.45, "trend": 0.7435, "fair_value": 0.431186, "relative_strength": -20.601526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.86606, "energy": 53.552296, "activity_lines": [ 0.563333, 0.584273, 0.635119, 0.668731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }