{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6961d83a-e3d1-44d9-ae52-094e807bde76", "symbol": "BPAC5", "name": "Banco BTG Pactual S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.28, "architecture_energy": 30.131, "architecture_maturity": 66.584, "architecture_confidence": 93.326, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.77, "rotation_up": 34.57, "upward_expansion": 63.46, "deceleration": 87.76, "rotation_down": 26.11, "downward_expansion": 15.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.079333, 18.234909, 17.663524, 16.722667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.889999, "trend_reference": 15.237667, "distance_from_trend": 0.174064, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.763334, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.832366, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 31.432512, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.583186, "excess_performance": 0.640234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.174064, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.18188, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.832366, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026862, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.314325, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022485, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.583186, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.071608, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49300, "relative_activity": 0.571263, "balance": 1.071608, "dry_up": 0.880939, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087071, "annualized_volatility": 0.737439, "from_high_reference": -0.164019, "from_low_reference": 1.068443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.237667, "fair_value_reference": 9.763334, "structural_low": 10.19, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.004487, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.008345, "regime_survival": 0.653846, "best_return": 0.165563, "worst_return": -0.177435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.013873, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.033075, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.260649, "worst_return": -0.144649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000618, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.010384, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.389109, "worst_return": -0.367073, "sufficient": true }, { 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64000, "typical_volume": 84735.0, "trend": 14.299426, "fair_value": 9.49949, "relative_strength": 44.490803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.672644, "energy": 80.511673, "activity_lines": [ 18.772, 17.707637, 17.04, 15.852847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.23, "volume": 189400, "typical_volume": 91695.0, "trend": 14.5477, "fair_value": 9.565771, "relative_strength": 36.881618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.542857, "energy": 71.8952, "activity_lines": [ 18.727334, 17.937273, 17.264667, 16.106432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.26, "volume": 52400, "typical_volume": 91175.0, "trend": 14.791, "fair_value": 9.632818, "relative_strength": 35.398471, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.324201, "energy": 69.535601, "activity_lines": [ 18.63, 18.141818, 17.460476, 16.345936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.75, "volume": 13000, "typical_volume": 88375.0, "trend": 15.009667, "fair_value": 9.697171, "relative_strength": 27.568107, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.913222, "energy": 45.313759, "activity_lines": [ 18.312, 18.203273, 17.572, 16.536839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.889999, "volume": 49300, "typical_volume": 86300.0, "trend": 15.237667, "fair_value": 9.763334, "relative_strength": 31.432512, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.280303, "energy": 30.130779, "activity_lines": [ 18.079333, 18.234909, 17.663524, 16.722667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }