{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69668d08-8d5e-4627-94a8-48781a9ceea3", "symbol": "SEAOIL", "name": "Sea Oil Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.158, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.014, "architecture_energy": 23.737, "architecture_maturity": 31.025, "architecture_confidence": 71.772, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.38, "rotation_up": 44.08, "upward_expansion": 26.55, "deceleration": 41.03, "rotation_down": 16.39, "downward_expansion": 46.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.290667, 3.230182, 3.23181, 3.278792 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.28, "trend_reference": 3.292409, "distance_from_trend": -0.003769, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.605765, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258747, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.309957, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.094682, "excess_performance": -0.097643, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003769, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033639, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258747, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103275, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128313, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094682, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.747612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1853900, "relative_activity": 0.721348, "balance": 0.747612, "dry_up": 1.410109, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042214, "annualized_volatility": 0.341617, "from_high_reference": -0.204806, "from_low_reference": 0.40762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.292409, "fair_value_reference": 2.605765, "structural_low": 2.976848, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.002604, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.010196, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.206896, "worst_return": -0.071006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.038521, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.052841, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.442765, "worst_return": -0.122066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009886, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.064361, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.286239, "worst_return": -0.115926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.008912, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.099727, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.516275, "worst_return": -0.181413, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055186, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058065, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075342, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.094488, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.047394, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.292069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042945, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083871, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012048, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.555483, "volume": 1185500, "typical_volume": 5611850.0, "trend": 2.754826, "fair_value": 2.530984, "relative_strength": -8.86315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.336881, "energy": 47.927713, "activity_lines": [ 3.113333, 3.136727, 3.237385, 3.268459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.24, "volume": 2639600, "typical_volume": 5419825.0, "trend": 3.251609, "fair_value": 2.592941, "relative_strength": -8.783654, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.311631, "energy": 22.622041, "activity_lines": [ 3.156, 3.146909, 3.228062, 3.268443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.36, "volume": 7355400, "typical_volume": 4005000.0, "trend": 3.266975, "fair_value": 2.597785, "relative_strength": -5.677801, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.299275, "energy": 12.155119, "activity_lines": [ 3.230667, 3.183273, 3.230952, 3.275436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.32, "volume": 2647300, "typical_volume": 2795140.0, "trend": 3.281007, "fair_value": 2.601851, "relative_strength": -5.792191, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.075468, "energy": 20.058808, "activity_lines": [ 3.274667, 3.211273, 3.232286, 3.278857 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.28, "volume": 1853900, "typical_volume": 2570050.0, "trend": 3.292409, "fair_value": 2.605765, "relative_strength": -6.309957, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.013838, "energy": 23.737177, "activity_lines": [ 3.290667, 3.230182, 3.23181, 3.278792 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }