{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6970a879-158f-4bba-bf55-21370b5edff0", "symbol": "4528", "name": "Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.901, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.974, "architecture_energy": 42.208, "architecture_maturity": 48.238, "architecture_confidence": 94.963, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.29, "rotation_up": 24.42, "upward_expansion": 5.74, "deceleration": 53.84, "rotation_down": 52.62, "downward_expansion": 81.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.25, 15.340909, 15.562619, 16.031768 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.2, "trend_reference": 16.823004, "distance_from_trend": -0.096475, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.206871, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.345022, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.732477, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.223292, "excess_performance": -0.664664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096475, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020955, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.345022, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016485, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.377325, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026778, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223292, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.689115, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73930, "relative_activity": 0.39538, "balance": 0.689115, "dry_up": 0.568057, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048836, "annualized_volatility": 0.160671, "from_high_reference": -0.322519, "from_low_reference": 0.020134 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.823004, "fair_value_reference": 23.206871, "structural_low": 14.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.006658, "positive_rate": 0.404762, "directional_follow_through": 0.595238, "median_excess_return": -0.032844, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.190588, "worst_return": -0.16787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.02474, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.138182, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.154545, "worst_return": -0.178947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.039761, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.225194, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.095963, "worst_return": -0.310024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -59.852145, "energy": 45.032159, "activity_lines": [ 15.396667, 15.534546, 15.817799, 16.35867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.25, "volume": 149974, "typical_volume": 189418.55, "trend": 16.905116, "fair_value": 23.429359, "relative_strength": -35.39037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.015009, "energy": 44.582899, "activity_lines": [ 15.343333, 15.468182, 15.721539, 16.248869 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.2, "volume": 99559, "typical_volume": 189338.15, "trend": 16.859942, "fair_value": 23.318269, "relative_strength": -36.359399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.241085, "energy": 43.052284, "activity_lines": [ 15.286667, 15.401818, 15.636146, 16.138861 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.2, "volume": 73930, "typical_volume": 186984.65, "trend": 16.823004, "fair_value": 23.206871, "relative_strength": -37.732477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.974129, "energy": 42.208422, "activity_lines": [ 15.25, 15.340909, 15.562619, 16.031768 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }