{ "ticker": { "uuid": "697271f6-316c-463b-a886-3c4fc1600e7c", "symbol": "002171", "name": "Anhui Truchum Advanced Materials and Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.61, "architecture_energy": 78.887, "architecture_maturity": 17.947, "architecture_confidence": 76.475, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.07, "rotation_up": 8.04, "upward_expansion": 17.82, "deceleration": 37.14, "rotation_down": 76.82, "downward_expansion": 91.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.625333, 10.899818, 11.529507, 11.720492 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.04, "trend_reference": 12.159841, "distance_from_trend": -0.174331, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.907168, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127182, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.640974, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.239394, "excess_performance": -0.246794, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174331, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010551, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127182, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267491, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16641, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.239394, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.509591, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 231537637, "relative_activity": 0.993881, "balance": 1.509591, "dry_up": 1.080503, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139154, "annualized_volatility": 0.551193, "from_high_reference": -0.370927, "from_low_reference": 0.168801 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.159841, "fair_value_reference": 8.907168, "structural_low": 8.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.026704, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.011913, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.221193, "worst_return": -0.131714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.115, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.074509, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.304348, "worst_return": -0.039059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.087209, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.146135, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.406127, "worst_return": -0.084492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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13.897333, 13.261461, 12.562441, 12.560913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.8, "volume": 400078848, "typical_volume": 227652536.45, "trend": 12.595174, "fair_value": 8.846344, "relative_strength": -8.046659, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.356236, "energy": 23.946422, "activity_lines": [ 13.222667, 13.091977, 12.513559, 12.509139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.37, "volume": 281684043, "typical_volume": 230812918.2, "trend": 12.500841, "fair_value": 8.862245, "relative_strength": -19.569622, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.82795, "energy": 38.450148, "activity_lines": [ 11.808, 12.470472, 12.237581, 12.301063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.84, "volume": 274035921, "typical_volume": 230861877.35, "trend": 12.390841, "fair_value": 8.874005, "relative_strength": -24.170894, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.299258, "energy": 60.387172, "activity_lines": [ 10.498, 11.797604, 11.931937, 12.06488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.28, "volume": 219611931, "typical_volume": 230261979.7, "trend": 12.267174, "fair_value": 8.88846, "relative_strength": -18.997299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.583936, "energy": 72.565392, "activity_lines": [ 9.770667, 11.260819, 11.687103, 11.86418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.04, "volume": 231537637, "typical_volume": 232963128.25, "trend": 12.159841, "fair_value": 8.907168, "relative_strength": -16.640974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.610355, "energy": 78.886776, "activity_lines": [ 9.625333, 10.899818, 11.529507, 11.720492 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }