{ "ticker": { "uuid": "697715ff-d6a5-4671-8651-8d82bfef5822", "symbol": "9601", "name": "Mohammed Hadi Al-Rasheed Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.859, "architecture_energy": 85.464, "architecture_maturity": 29.488, "architecture_confidence": 89.051, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.05, "rotation_up": 11.16, "upward_expansion": 20.72, "deceleration": 37.47, "rotation_down": 80.21, "downward_expansion": 98.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.053333, 62.536363, 66.994047, 69.762365 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 59.0, "trend_reference": 73.165, "distance_from_trend": -0.193603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 67.774373, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.129464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.077231, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.276074, "excess_performance": -0.244244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193603, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040396, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.129464, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250448, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179273, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.276074, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.061728, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23760, "relative_activity": 2.220135, "balance": 0.061728, "dry_up": 1.624198, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077184, "annualized_volatility": 0.333879, "from_high_reference": -0.356948, "from_low_reference": 0.072727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.165, "fair_value_reference": 67.774373, "structural_low": 55.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.102941, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.090126, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.102941, "worst_return": -0.102941, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.903033, "energy": 82.442092, "activity_lines": [ 63.56, 67.015454, 70.373571, 72.541183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.0, "volume": 16255, "typical_volume": 10696.5, "trend": 74.251667, "fair_value": 67.924362, "relative_strength": -16.80026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.496192, "energy": 85.550013, "activity_lines": [ 62.093333, 65.478182, 69.243571, 71.656559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.599998, "volume": 4730, "typical_volume": 10437.0, "trend": 73.708333, "fair_value": 67.851341, "relative_strength": -16.710825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.738256, "energy": 86.529072, "activity_lines": [ 60.893333, 63.930909, 68.094047, 70.71129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.0, "volume": 23760, "typical_volume": 10702.05, "trend": 73.165, "fair_value": 67.774373, "relative_strength": -19.077231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.8594, "energy": 85.464229, "activity_lines": [ 60.053333, 62.536363, 66.994047, 69.762365 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }