{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69781ef7-504d-4ace-bafd-527d4264e0c8", "symbol": "600538", "name": "Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.724, "architecture_energy": 76.225, "architecture_maturity": 26.038, "architecture_confidence": 84.324, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.91, "rotation_up": 10.05, "upward_expansion": 17.67, "deceleration": 38.12, "rotation_down": 73.25, "downward_expansion": 91.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.954667, 5.224727, 5.729095, 5.972903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.32, "trend_reference": 6.262333, "distance_from_trend": -0.150476, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.166667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029677, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.170442, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.247525, "excess_performance": -0.204321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150476, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032595, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029677, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.3389, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131704, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15336, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247525, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.827964, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64195201, "relative_activity": 0.934476, "balance": 0.827964, "dry_up": 1.115153, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110902, "annualized_volatility": 0.396266, "from_high_reference": -0.309091, "from_low_reference": 0.26969 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.262333, "fair_value_reference": 5.166667, "structural_low": 4.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.00202, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": 0.003433, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.28481, "worst_return": -0.188776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011837, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014712, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.450581, "worst_return": -0.176759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.07201, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.035923, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.220049, "worst_return": -0.122164, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }