{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "697a7ce7-7e15-4b8a-8345-cac85a43e541",
    "symbol": "IUKD",
    "name": "iShares UK Dividend UCITS ETF GBP (Dist)",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 91.868,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 80.787,
    "architecture_energy": 92.034,
    "architecture_maturity": 18.284,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.177,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 4.15,
        "rotation_up": 86.14,
        "upward_expansion": 99.94,
        "deceleration": 39.01,
        "rotation_down": 8.36,
        "downward_expansion": 21.94
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        12.1544,
        11.935892,
        11.658533,
        11.526996
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 12.282,
    "trend_reference": 11.387446,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.078556,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 8.714055,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.409447,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -2.138443,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.079184,
    "excess_performance": -0.091708,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.078556,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.04472,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.409447,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.070536,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021384,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022616,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079184,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.889576,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 14398,
      "relative_activity": 0.311196,
      "balance": 0.889576,
      "dry_up": 0.418028,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.021237,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.14712,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.314018
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 11.387446,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.714055,
      "structural_low": 10.416,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 34,
        "median_return": 0.010507,
        "positive_rate": 0.529412,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.529412,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005927,
        "regime_survival": 0.705882,
        "best_return": 0.059887,
        "worst_return": -0.148355,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.006153,
        "positive_rate": 0.615385,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": -0.021575,
        "regime_survival": 0.615385,
        "best_return": 0.097735,
        "worst_return": -0.087832,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.08236,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.056007,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.107033,
        "worst_return": -0.067153,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.127624,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.105105,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.27186,
        "worst_return": -0.012994,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.027875,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.017138,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-05-09",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-08-01",
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 50686.45,
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        "fair_value": 8.608346,
        "relative_strength": -0.617986,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 85.463615,
        "energy": 83.9091,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 12.092,
        "volume": 38710,
        "typical_volume": 49110.05,
        "trend": 11.284955,
        "fair_value": 8.642029,
        "relative_strength": -0.119437,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 81.424367,
        "energy": 88.219567,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 12.198,
        "volume": 10952,
        "typical_volume": 46886.3,
        "trend": 11.336693,
        "fair_value": 8.677582,
        "relative_strength": 0.054965,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.022801,
        "energy": 91.544424,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.0448,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 12.282,
        "volume": 14398,
        "typical_volume": 46266.6,
        "trend": 11.387446,
        "fair_value": 8.714055,
        "relative_strength": -2.138443,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.787474,
        "energy": 92.034422,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.1544,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}