{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69831587-91b2-4fbf-91a1-0c0f00a8130c", "symbol": "AEF", "name": "Aeffe S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.624, "architecture_energy": 31.775, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.267, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.19, "rotation_up": 26.82, "upward_expansion": 15.48, "deceleration": 44.05, "rotation_down": 32.84, "downward_expansion": 60.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.156433, 0.156036, 0.158381, 0.172324 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.153, "trend_reference": 0.196713, "distance_from_trend": -0.222218, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.597616, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.743983, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -49.428825, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.418251, "excess_performance": -0.589143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.222218, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157557, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.743983, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005599, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.494288, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074605, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.418251, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.575527, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1041912, "relative_activity": 1.124169, "balance": 0.575527, "dry_up": 0.776515, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116642, "annualized_volatility": 0.73918, "from_high_reference": -0.691843, "from_low_reference": 0.163498 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.196713, "fair_value_reference": 0.597616, "structural_low": 0.1315, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.035785, "positive_rate": 0.317073, "directional_follow_through": 0.682927, "median_excess_return": -0.052835, "regime_survival": 0.926829, "best_return": 0.408889, "worst_return": -0.386994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.163679, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.157738, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.403162, "worst_return": -0.497018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.199605, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.254323, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.104326, "worst_return": -0.598413, "sufficient": true 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080357, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035897, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111617, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04, "active": 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886945.35, "trend": 0.208663, "fair_value": 0.609401, "relative_strength": -49.162756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.533027, "energy": 27.702813, "activity_lines": [ 0.158233, 0.154827, 0.161178, 0.178604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1605, "volume": 1164146, "typical_volume": 909868.8, "trend": 0.20218, "fair_value": 0.60343, "relative_strength": -46.895597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.871645, "energy": 27.184747, "activity_lines": [ 0.158233, 0.156282, 0.159976, 0.175497 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.153, "volume": 1041912, "typical_volume": 926828.45, "trend": 0.196713, "fair_value": 0.597616, "relative_strength": -49.428825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.623638, "energy": 31.775437, "activity_lines": [ 0.156433, 0.156036, 0.158381, 0.172324 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }