{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6988b71b-67c7-4738-86b4-7f915ecb0890", "symbol": "002388", "name": "Sunyes Manufacturing (Zhejiang) Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.47, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.094, "architecture_energy": 39.956, "architecture_maturity": 6.503, "architecture_confidence": 83.402, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.18, "rotation_up": 18.87, "upward_expansion": 11.14, "deceleration": 38.16, "rotation_down": 55.08, "downward_expansion": 77.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.672667, 4.786, 4.989905, 5.069097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.22, "trend_reference": 5.253, "distance_from_trend": -0.006282, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.811154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084979, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.256174, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.033333, "excess_performance": -0.040733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006282, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084979, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037179, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062562, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052094, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.910617, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 243050522, "relative_activity": 1.663369, "balance": 2.910617, "dry_up": 1.977273, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136605, "annualized_volatility": 0.539204, "from_high_reference": -0.253219, "from_low_reference": 0.487179 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.253, "fair_value_reference": 4.811154, "structural_low": 3.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.041298, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.032532, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.462295, "worst_return": -0.429907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.035494, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.051703, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.688136, "worst_return": -0.31215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.057525, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.081403, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.93763, "worst_return": -0.448598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.652056, "energy": 38.946036, "activity_lines": [ 5.049333, 5.194909, 5.208762, 5.286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.91, "volume": 166128300, "typical_volume": 110452364.85, "trend": 5.400333, "fair_value": 4.852564, "relative_strength": -27.310757, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.827482, "energy": 69.316326, "activity_lines": [ 4.646, 4.944182, 5.085667, 5.186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.36, "volume": 216418720, "typical_volume": 115760667.5, "trend": 5.35, "fair_value": 4.835256, "relative_strength": -19.007369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.278225, "energy": 67.653493, "activity_lines": [ 4.465333, 4.805818, 5.013571, 5.118882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.65, "volume": 530074285, "typical_volume": 138166951.65, "trend": 5.291667, "fair_value": 4.820256, "relative_strength": -12.121184, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.509219, "energy": 66.083107, "activity_lines": [ 4.455333, 4.738, 4.973333, 5.07372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.22, "volume": 243050522, "typical_volume": 146119402.75, "trend": 5.253, "fair_value": 4.811154, "relative_strength": -6.256174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.094247, "energy": 39.956071, "activity_lines": [ 4.672667, 4.786, 4.989905, 5.069097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }