{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6988bea2-d86f-460d-b322-ef797811d4d5", "symbol": "NHE", "name": "Noble Helium Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.631, "architecture_energy": 21.098, "architecture_maturity": 27.567, "architecture_confidence": 59.049, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.76, "rotation_up": 17.71, "upward_expansion": 12.28, "deceleration": 60.79, "rotation_down": 40.55, "downward_expansion": 59.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.027867, 0.027818, 0.0294, 0.030034 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.027, "trend_reference": 0.030967, "distance_from_trend": -0.128095, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.06466, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.582433, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.851898, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181818, "excess_performance": -0.245524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128095, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098496, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.582433, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08352, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248519, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071592, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181818, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.085209, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12051611, "relative_activity": 0.791887, "balance": 1.085209, "dry_up": 1.194326, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.252137, "annualized_volatility": 1.087108, "from_high_reference": -0.557377, "from_low_reference": 0.173913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.030967, "fair_value_reference": 0.06466, "structural_low": 0.023, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.086735, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.092758, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 1.181818, "worst_return": -0.352941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.254278, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.28383, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 3.363636, "worst_return": -0.612245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.393756, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.475657, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.727273, "worst_return": -0.77551, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 0.028, "volume": 11262457, "typical_volume": 12209680.15, "trend": 0.032367, "fair_value": 0.070641, "relative_strength": -20.535867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.847041, "energy": 48.201411, "activity_lines": [ 0.0276, 0.029764, 0.030481, 0.03103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.028, "volume": 16652601, "typical_volume": 12912276.85, "trend": 0.031967, "fair_value": 0.069058, "relative_strength": -19.91894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.430832, "energy": 42.354425, "activity_lines": [ 0.0278, 0.029255, 0.0302, 0.030748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.029, "volume": 32342765, "typical_volume": 14348201.85, "trend": 0.0317, "fair_value": 0.067577, "relative_strength": -16.532391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.947335, "energy": 22.70082, "activity_lines": [ 0.028333, 0.028909, 0.030024, 0.030557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.028, "volume": 11658137, "typical_volume": 14848901.2, "trend": 0.0314, "fair_value": 0.065962, "relative_strength": -20.444593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.88353, "energy": 22.073512, "activity_lines": [ 0.028333, 0.028364, 0.029757, 0.030318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.027, "volume": 12051611, "typical_volume": 15218856.2, "trend": 0.030967, "fair_value": 0.06466, "relative_strength": -24.851898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.631127, "energy": 21.097963, "activity_lines": [ 0.027867, 0.027818, 0.0294, 0.030034 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }